Talking Points:
- US Dollar May Rise as Employment Cost Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
- July’s Flash Eurozone CPI Unlikely to Inspire Lasting Euro Follow-Through
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected print at 0.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month.
The release seemsunlikely to inspire meaningful follow-through from the Euro considering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Indeed, the central bank appears effectively on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.
US economic data will enter the spotlight in the day. The second-quarter Employment Cost Index report is in focus, where expectations point to a slight deceleration for a print at 0.6 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the three months through March.
US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result – particularly if it is bolstered by an upside revision on July’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge – stands to reinforce bets on an on-coming Fed interest rate hike following this week’s hawkish shift in FOMC rhetoric, boosting the US Dollar.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:05 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL) | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate (JUN) | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN) | 1.19 | 1.2 | 1.19 |
| 23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JUN) | -2.0% | 1.9% | 4.8% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI (YoY) (JUN) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUL) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN) | 2.74% | - | 2.91% |
| 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL) | 19 | - | 23.6 |
| 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence (JUL) | -15.3 | - | -2.3 |
| 01:15 | AUD | CBA/HIA House Affordability (2Q) | 79.7 | - | 82 |
| 01:30 | AUD | PPI (QoQ) (2Q) | 0.3% | - | 0.5% |
| 01:30 | AUD | PPI (YoY) (2Q) | 1.1% | - | 0.7% |
| 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN) | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% |
| 03:00 | NZD | Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) | 9.5% | - | 8.1% |
| 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN) | 16.3% | 3.0% | 5.8% |
| 05:00 | JPY | Annualized Housing Starts (JUN) | 1.033M | 0.913M | 0.912M |
| 05:00 | JPY | Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN) | 15.4% | - | -7.4% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) | -2.3% (A) | 0.4% | Low |
| 06:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) | 5.1% (A) | -1.0% | Low |
| 08:30 | GBP | Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL) | - | 55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JUN) | 11.0% | 11.1% | Medium |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL) | 0.2% | 0.2% | Medium |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JUL A) | 0.8% | 0.8% | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0746 | 1.0842 | 1.0887 | 1.0938 | 1.0983 | 1.1034 | 1.1130 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5443 | 1.5523 | 1.5562 | 1.5603 | 1.5642 | 1.5683 | 1.5763 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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