Pound May Prove More Responsive Than Euro to Eurozone PMI Data

2015-04-23 04:46:00

Talking Points:

Eurozone PMIs May Prove More Market-Moving for the Pound vs. the Euro
NZ Dollar Slumps as RBNZ’s McDermott Talks Down Rate Hike Possibilities
Franc Corrects Higher After Yesterday’s Aggressive SNB-Inspired Decline

The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth continued to accelerate, hitting a new four-year high.

The report may not generate a lasting response from the Euro with ECB policy seemingly on auto-pilot for now. A supportive outcome may boost the British Pound however amid hopes that firming growth on the Continent will have positive spillover via a pickup in demand for UK exports. That in turn may drive speculation of a relatively sooner BOE interest rate hike. We remain short EURGBP.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 1 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move followed comments from RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott, who said the central isn’t considering an interest rate hike at present and would instead consider easing if demand and/or prices weakened.

The Swiss Franc proved strongest on the session as prices retraced some of yesterday’s outsized losses. That drop was sustained after the SNB reduced the number of institutions exempt from negative sight deposit rates, in effect expanding the scope of its easing effort.

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Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:45	NZD	Net Migration SA (MAR)	5000	-	4810
0:00	NZD	RBNZ Asst Gov McDermott Speaks in Hamilton	-	-	-
1:00	NZD	ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)	128.8	-	124.6
1:00	NZD	ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)	3.4%	-	0.5%
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (1Q)		-	2
1:35	JPY	Markit/JMMA Mfg PMI (APR P)	49.7	50.7	50.3
1:45	CNY	HSBC Mfg PMI (APR P)	49.2	49.6	49.6
3:00	NZD	Credit Card Spending (MoM) (MAR)	0.6%	-	-0.1%
3:00	NZD	Credit Card Spending (YoY) (MAR)	5.2%	-	5.8%

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
6:00	CHF	Trade Balance (MAR)	2.12B	2.47B	Medium
6:00	CHF	Exports Real (MoM) (MAR)	-	-2.8%	Medium
6:00	CHF	Imports Real (MoM) (MAR)	-	3.1%	Medium
6:00	EUR	Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY)	-	10	Low
7:00	EUR	Markit France Mfg PMI (APR P)	49.2	48.8	Medium
7:00	EUR	Markit France Services PMI (APR P)	52.4	52.4	Medium
7:00	EUR	Markit France Composite PMI (APR P)	51.8	51.5	Medium
7:30	EUR	Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (APR P)	53.0	52.8	High
7:30	EUR	Markit Germany Services PMI (APR P)	55.5	55.4	High
7:30	EUR	Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (APR P)	55.6	55.4	High
8:00	EUR	Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (APR P)	52.6	52.2	High
8:00	EUR	Markit Eurozone Services PMI (APR P)	54.5	54.2	High
8:00	EUR	Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (APR P)	54.4	54.0	High
8:30	GBP	Public Finances (PSNCR) (MAR)	-	0.0B	Low
8:30	GBP	Central Government NCR (MAR)	-	3.5B	Low
8:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAR)	6.5B	6.2B	Low
8:30	GBP	PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR)	7.0B	6.9B	Low
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (MAR)	0.5%	0.7%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (MAR)	5.5%	5.1%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (MAR)	0.4%	0.7%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (MAR)	5.4%	5.7%	Medium
9:00	EUR	Eurozone 4Q Government Debt	-	-	Low
9:00	EUR	Eurozone 4Q Government Deficit	-	-	Low