Talking Points:
- US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on March FOMC Meeting Minutes
- New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Asian Stocks on Firming Risk Appetite
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of minutes from the March Federal Reserve policy meeting for direction cues. Traders will be keen for confirmation of the dovish shift in timing bets on the first post-QE rate hike. Futures markets reveal a lean toward an increase in October after Friday’s dismal payrolls data, a far cry from earlier speculation about June or July.
Signs of trepidation on the rate-setting FOMC committee are likely to weigh on the US Dollar and may boost risk appetite, offering a lift to sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while punishing the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Alternatively, rhetoric suggesting Janet Yellen and company will look through the dip in economic activity in the first quarter – a move similar to their steadfast commitment to “tapering” QE even as growth slid in the first three months of 2014 – may generate the opposite dynamic.
The Kiwi Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move mirrored an advance on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to a swell in risk appetite as the likely catalyst hind gains.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
23:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | -2.1% | - | -1.7% |
23:30 | AUD | ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf | 109.7 | - | 112.3 |
23:50 | JPY | BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB) | 1440.1B | 1196.0B | 61.4B |
23:50 | JPY | BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB) | 603.5B | 605.0B | 1058.1B |
23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB) | -143.1B | -239.9B | -864.2B |
- | JPY | BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥) | 80T | 80T | |
3:00 | JPY | BOJ Kuroda Press Conference | - | - | - |
5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR) | 50.5 | 50.1 | |
5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR) | 53.5 | 53.2 |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
6:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders (MoM) (FEB) | 1.5% | -3.9% | Medium |
6:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders WDA (YoY) (FEB) | 0.5% | -0.1% | Medium |
6:45 | EUR | France Trade Balance (FEB) | -3800M | -3726M | Low |
7:15 | CHF | CPI (MoM) (MAR) | 0.1% | -0.3% | Medium |
7:15 | CHF | CPI (YoY) (MAR) | -1.1% | -0.8% | Medium |
7:15 | CHF | CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR) | 0.1% | -0.4% | Low |
7:15 | CHF | CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR) | -0.9% | -0.4% | Low |
7:30 | EUR | Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAR) | - | 53.1 | Medium |
7:45 | JPY | Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR) | - | -11.5% | Low |
8:00 | GBP | New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR) | - | 12.0% | Low |
8:10 | EUR | Markit Germany Retail PMI (MAR) | - | 51.5 | Medium |
8:10 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAR) | - | 46.4 | Medium |
8:10 | EUR | Markit France Retail PMI (MAR) | - | 43.6 | Low |
8:10 | EUR | Markit Italy Retail PMI (MAR) | - | 42.3 | Low |
9:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) | -0.2% | 1.1% | Medium |
9:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) | 2.8% | 3.7% | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EURUSD | 1.0556 | 1.0707 | 1.0761 | 1.0858 | 1.0912 | 1.1009 | 1.1160 |
GBPUSD | 1.4608 | 1.4726 | 1.4767 | 1.4844 | 1.4885 | 1.4962 | 1.5080 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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