Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

2015-02-27 07:39:00

Talking Points:

Euro Unlikely to Find Fuel in German CPI Data as ECB QE Launch Looms
Larger-Than-Expected US GDP Markdown May Send US Dollar Downward
See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Germany’s flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.3 percent drawdown in February following a 0.4 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE next month.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the second revision of four-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth reading is expected to be revised down to 2 percent from the initially-reported estimate of 2.6 percent. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.

The greenback faced broad-based selling pressure overnight, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective in the context of yesterday’s aggressive rally that produced the largest daily advance in a month. That move followed January’s CPI data that showed a larger than expected monthly rise in core inflation while a separate report showed real Average Hourly Earnings jumped 1.2 percent last month, marking the largest increase since November 2008.

New to FX? START HERE !

Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
23:30	NZD	Building Permits (MoM)	-3.8%	-	-2.3%
23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (JAN)	3.6%	3.4%	3.4%
23:30	JPY	Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)	1.14	1.15	1.14
23:30	JPY	Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)	-5.1%	-4.1%	-3.4%
23:30	JPY	Natl CPI (YoY) (JAN)	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
23:30	JPY	Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%
23:30	JPY	Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI (YoY) (FEB)	2.3%	2.2%	2.3%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)	4.0%	2.7%	0.8%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)	-2.6%	-3.1%	0.1%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)	-2.0%	-1.2%	0.1%
23:50	JPY	Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)	-1.3%	-0.4%	-0.4%
23:50	JPY	Large Retailers' Sales (JAN)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.1%
00:00	NZD	ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)	40.9	-	37.3
00:00	NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)	34.4	-	30.4
00:05	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB)	1	2	1
00:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%
00:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)	6.2%	6.0%	5.9%
2:00	NZD	Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)	6.2%	-	6.3%
4:00	JPY	Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)	-9.7%	-	-2.5%
5:00	JPY	Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)	-13.0%	-11.6%	-14.7%
5:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)	0.864M	0.880M	0.883M
5:00	JPY	Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)	27.5%	-	3.4%

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP/ACT	PREV	IMPACT
7:00	EUR	German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)	-0.8% (A)	-1.7%	Low
7:00	EUR	German Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)	-4.4% (A)	-3.7%	Low
8:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicator (FEB)	89	97	Low
9:30	GBP	Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)	-	52	Low
13:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM) (FEB P)	0.6%	-1.1%	High
13:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY) (FEB P)	-0.3%	-0.4%	High
13:00	EUR	German CPI- EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)	0.6%	-1.3%	Medium
13:00	EUR	German CPI- EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB P)	-0.5%	0.5%	Medium