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Forex: Dollar May Be More Responsive to Strong vs Weak US Jobs Data

By , Currency Strategist
07 March 2014 05:40 GMT

Talking Points:

  • Major Currencies Quiet in Asia, Focus Now on US Employment Report
  • Persistent Disappointment is the Established Status Quo for US Releases
  • Dollar May See Disproportionate Response to Good vs. Bad Jobs Data

The major currencies are little changed in overnight trade as investors withhold directional conviction ahead of the much-anticipated US Employment report due in the hours ahead. Expectations call for nonfarm payrolls to rise 149,000 in February, marking the largest increase in three months. The unemployment rate is expected to print at 6.6 percent, unchanged from January.

US economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to economists’ forecasts since mid-January but the Federal Reserve has stubbornly insisted that it intends to continue “tapering” QE asset purchases. This disconnect is likely to be at the heart of the markets’ reaction to whatever jobs figures ultimately come across the wires.In this context, data perceived as relatively “good” will support the Fed’s side of the argument and stands to boost the US Dollar, while an outcome seen as “bad” would likely weigh on the greenback.

The degree of follow-through is likewise an important consideration. Persistently disappointing news-flow over the past two months has likely established a sort of status-quo in the minds of traders. That means a payrolls number that falls short of median forecasts would amount to continuity of established trends. That means that while USD is likely to come under pressure in this scenario, the move’s staying power may prove limited. On the other hand, a better-than-expected or even a broadly in-line result would mark a change of pace and a comparative improvement, which may send the benchmark currency higher in a significant way.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (FEB)

44.2

-

48.2

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (FEB)

1288.2B

-

1277.1B

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (JAN P)

114.8

114.6

112.3

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (JAN P)

112.2

112.4

111.7

5:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (FEB)

51.8B

-

53.3B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (FEB)

3.5%

3.5%

Medium

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)

3.2%

3.2%

Medium

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB)

436.0B

437.7B

Low

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

-0.3%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

0.0%

0.1%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.6%

Low

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB)

0.3%

0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB)

-

3.6%

Low

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)

0.8%

-0.6%

Low

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

3.9%

2.6%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3514

1.3666

1.3764

1.3818

1.3916

1.3970

1.4122

GBP/USD

1.6551

1.6643

1.6691

1.6735

1.6783

1.6827

1.6919

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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07 March 2014 05:40 GMT