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Forex: Markets Focused on Final Pre-FOMC Round of Fed-Speak

By , Currency Strategist
09 December 2013 07:25 GMT

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Gaps Higher to Start the Week on Chinese Exports Surge
  • Japanese Yen Briefly Strengthens vs. USD After 3Q GDP is Revised Lower
  • Quiet US, European Data Docket Puts Pre-FOMC “Fed-speak “ in Focus

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The major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in late Asian trade. The Australian Dollar gapped higher at the open of the trading week following better-than-expected Chinese export figures while the Japanese Yen edged higher after revised third-quarter GDP data disappointed, but meaningful continuation proved lacking on both fronts.

Seasonal factors may be behind muted price action in the G10 FX space. There remain just two full weeks of trading before activity dries up for the Christmas and New Year holidays celebrated around most of the world’s leading financial centers. That means traders are unlikely to commit to major changes in existing trends with so little time to establish follow-through.

The economic data calendar is relatively muted in European and US session hours. That puts the spotlight on the final day of “Fed-speak” before next week’s FOMC policy announcement. Jeff Lacker, Jim Bullard, and Richard Fisher – Presidents of the Fed’s Richmond, St. Louis, and Dallas branches respectively – are scheduled to speak.

The timing of the first move to “taper” QE asset purchases remains the central object of speculation. However, with just three days separating December’s Fed announcement and the Christmas holiday, investors are likely to wait for the onset of 2014 before betting on policy trends in earnest.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

3:01

CNY

Trade Balance (NOV)

$33.80B

$21.20B

$31.10B

3:01

CNY

Exports (YoY) (NOV)

12.7%

7.0%

5.6%

3:01

CNY

Imports (YoY) (NOV)

5.3%

7.0%

7.6%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

-

-3.5%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (3Q)

4.7%

-

-1.2%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (NOV)

9.2%

-

8.9%

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized (3Q F)

1.1%

1.6%

1.9%

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (3Q F)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (NOV)

2.4%

-

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (NOV)

2.2%

-

2.0%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)

-127.9B

148.9B

587.3B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)

-59.3B

120.7B

-125.2B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (OCT)

-130.4%

-61.4%

14.3%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (OCT)

-1091.9B

-1005.5B

-874.8B

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV)

-0.8%

-

-0.1%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

3.0%

3.1%

3.2%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

-1.4%

-1.5%

-1.5%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (NOV)

-10.6%

-

-7.3%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (NOV)

53.5

-

51.8

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (NOV)

54.8

-

54.5

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (NOV)

3.2% (A)

3.1%

Medium

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (NOV)

3.2% (A)

3.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q)

1.6% (A)

2.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)

-0.3% (A)

-0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (OCT)

17.9B (A)

20.3B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (OCT)

19.1B (A)

20.0B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.2% (A)

1.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

2.9% (A)

-1.9%

Low

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (OCT)

-

1.0%

Low

9:30

EUR

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (DEC)

10.0

9.3

Low

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.7%

-0.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

3.1%

1.0%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3508

1.3593

1.3649

1.3678

1.3734

1.3763

1.3848

GBPUSD

1.6147

1.6246

1.6298

1.6345

1.6397

1.6444

1.6543

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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09 December 2013 07:25 GMT