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Forex Analysis: Euro at Risk on CPI, Dollar May Rise on Risk Aversion

By , Currency Strategist
30 November 2012 06:45 GMT

The Euro may fall as slowing inflation boosts ECB easing expectations while the Dollar may recover as S&P 500 futures point to risk aversion into the week-end.

Talking Points

  • Euro May See Selling Pressure as Eurozone CPI Drop Drives ECB Easing Bets
  • S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Aversion, Hinting US Dollar May Bounce Ahead
  • Yen Sold as Japanese Industrial Production Grows, Cabinet Passes Stimulus

The preliminary estimate of November’s Eurozone CPIreading headlines the calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline inflation rate to drop to 2.4 percent, the lowest in four months. The outcome may weigh on the Euro as forex traders take softening price pressure to mean the ECB has added room for further easing amid signs of deepening recessionin the wake of deteriorating economic data (particularly the recent run of region-wide PMI figures).

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 futures are pointing lower to warn a risk-off mood may prevail through the end of the trading week, boosting the safety-linked US Dollar against most of its counterparts. Chatter from the sidelines of US “fiscal cliff” negotiations remains critical. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the spending cuts and tax hikes to be triggered at the turn of the year will tip the US into recession. This makes securing a deal to avoid the “cliff” critical to underpin risk appetite in an environment where traders are depending on recovery in the world’s top economy to offset headwinds from Europe and China.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, down against all of its major counterparts, as a rally in Asian stocks eroded demand for the haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index added 0.5 percent after Japan’s cabinet approved a second fiscal stimulus package worth ¥880 billion and Industrial Production unexpectedly rose in October, adding 1.8 percent. Economists expected output shrink 2 percent. The result marked the largest increase in 10 months.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (OCT)

-1.5%

0.0%

7.6% (R-)

23:15

JPY

Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

46.5

-

46.9

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (OCT)

4.2%

4.2%

4.2%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (OCT)

0.8

0.8

0.81

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (OCT)

-0.1%

-0.8%

-0.9%

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (OCT)

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT)

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT)

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P)

1.8%

-2.0%

-4.1%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P)

-4.3%

-8.0%

-8.1%

0:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (NOV)

-22

-30

-30

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (OCT)

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (OCT)

3.8%

4.1%

4.0%

1:35

CNY

MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (NOV)

53.78

-

51.86

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)

5.8%

-

6.4%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (OCT)

-12.4%

-

-12.4%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT)

25.2%

10.1%

15.5%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (OCT)

0.978M

0.852M

0.866M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (OCT)

-13.8%

-

3.6%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

-0.4%

1.5%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-0.3%

-3.1%

Medium

7:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.3%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (YoY) (OCT)

2.9%

2.9%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (YoY) (OCT)

-0.5%

-0.3%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (OCT)

-0.2%

0.1%

Low

8:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (NOV)

1.6

1.67

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT P)

10.9%

10.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (3Q)

10.7%

10.6%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (NOV P)

-0.1%

0.0%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (NOV P)

2.7%

2.6%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (NOV P)

-0.1%

0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (NOV P)

2.8%

2.8%

Low

11:00

EUR

Italian PPI (MoM) (OCT)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Low

11:00

EUR

Italian PPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.8%

2.8%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate(OCT)

11.7%

11.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (NOV)

2.4%

2.5%

High

Critical Levels **

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2941

1.3052

GBPUSD

1.6013

1.6076

** Intraday support and resistance levels are derived from Pivot Points

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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30 November 2012 06:45 GMT