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Dollar, Yen May Add to Gains as S&P 500 Futures Signal Risk Aversion

By , Currency Strategist
13 August 2012 06:05 GMT

Talking Points

  • Dollar, Yen Rise After Japan’s GDP Report Disappoints Expectations
  • Italian Bill Auction Highlights Muted European Event Risk Calendar
  • S&P 500 Stock Index Futures Hint at Continued Risk Aversion Ahead

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of their leading counterparts as FX markets displayed all the familiar characteristics of risk aversion. A disappointing set of Japanese GDP figures stands out as a lone catalyst for the dour mood, although Asian shares were suspiciously deaf to the release. The report showed output grew 0.3 percent in the third quarter, falling short of expectations calling for a 0.6 percent increase.

The economic calendar is quiet in European hours, hinting risk sentiment is likely to retain control of price action. With that in mind, risk-averse dynamics appear likely to carry forward, with S&P 500 stock index futures pointing firmly lower late into the overnight session. Italy may generate a bit of activity as the largest of the debt-stricken Eurozone member states sells €8 billion in 12-month bills. Traders will look to average yield and bid-to-cover readings as a gauge of sovereign stress in the region.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (JUL)

0.2%

-

1.4%

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q P)

1.4%

2.3%

5.5% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.3%

0.6%

1.3% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q P)

-0.1%

0.4%

1.4% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (2Q P)

-1.1%

-0.8%

-1.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%(A)

-1.1%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

2.0% (A)

1.1%

Low

8:30

EUR

French Current Account (€) (JUN)

-4.1B

-4.1B

Low

8:30

EUR

Italian General Government Debt (JUN)

-

1966.3B

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy to Sell €8B in 12-mo Bills

-

-

Medium

9:30

EUR

Germany to Sell €4B in 6-mo Bills

-

-

Low

13:00

EUR

France to Sell €7.2B in 3-, 6- and 12-mo Bills

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2249

1.2324

GBPUSD

1.5612

1.5735

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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13 August 2012 06:05 GMT