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FOREX: All Eyes on Ben Bernanke Amid Firming Fed Rate Outlook

By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist
04 April 2011 07:31 GMT

Overnight Headlines

  • Pound Gains on Firming Labor Market Outlook
  • NZ Dollar Higher as Commodity Prices Rise

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.4099

1.4305

GBPUSD

1.6023

1.6309

The Euro was little changed in overnight trade, with prices consolidating near Friday’s closing levels. The British Pound edged higher, adding as much 0.4 percent against the US Dollar (see below).

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

CNY

China Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)

60.2

-

44.1

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAR)

-65

-

-68

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAR)

0.6%

-

0.2%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAR)

3.8%

-

3.6%

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)

1.3%

-

1.1% (R-)

3:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)

4.7%

-

2.7%

Major currencies were little changed in quiet overnight trade. The British Pound narrowly outperformed, rising against all of its major counterparts after Lloyds Employment Confidence – a gauge of consumers’ sentiment about the health of the labor market – improved for the first in three months. The New Zealand Dollar also fared well following a report showing the price of the island nation’s commodity exports soared 4.7 percent in March, amounting to the largest increase in 11 months.

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

Italian Deficit to GDP YTD (4Q)

4.6%

5.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)

54.8

56.5

Medium

8:30

GBP

BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal (£) (4Q)

-5.7B

-6.1B

Low

8:30

EUR

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (APR)

16.0

17.1

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

0.8%

1.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

6.7%

6.1%

Low

With little of note on the economic calendar, traders will look ahead to commentary from Federal Reserve officials due to begin late into the European afternoon. While remarks from the increasingly hawkish (albeit mildly so) Dennis Lockhart and the overtly dovish Charles Evans are likely to net out, investors will be acutely interested in what Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say. Last week saw a noticeable hawkish shift in policymakers’ rhetoric and investors will be keen to learn if that reflects an evolution in thinking on the part of the central bank chief himself. Signs pointing to the possibility that the second round of quantitative easing (QE) might be trimmed in size or ended before the scheduled time in June would add to upward pressure on US yields, stoking the US Dollar higher against low-yielding currencies (Yen, Franc) while sinking it against its risk-sensitive counterparts (Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie) considering such rhetoric ought to prove positive for sentiment at large.

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04 April 2011 07:31 GMT