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Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update

By , Chief Currency Strategist
30 April 2014 04:16 GMT

Talking Points:

  • Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update
  • Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data
  • Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ’s Intentions?

Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update

The dollar and financial markets were less worried about forging a major trend this past session and far more interested in preparing for the upcoming session’s major event risk. There is plenty of top-tier calendar fodder, but the FOMC rate decision and US 1Q GDP statistics stand out over the rest. This combination of releases has the scope to not only reinvigorate US interest rate speculation – sidelined since the liquidity drain – they could actually change the course on broader risk trends given the proper outcomes. The impact of this wave depends on the market’s susceptibility and the actual outcomes. At best, we know there is a reasonable probability of volatility and a lower level of certainty that it will encourage a dollar advance. However, the market’s performance heading into the release is near certain: retracements and consolidation in preparation of the release.

In establishing which of the two major US events will prove more market-moving, timing is of critical importance. The growth report is due at 12:30 GMT while the central bank will release its announce its verdict and statement at 18:00 GMT. Both of these items have enough pull that traders will hesitate to place large trades on the earlier release on anything but a substantial deviation from consensus for fear of a Fed outcome that could contradict the move. That is not to mean that the first quarter’s GDP release is not important. However, its full impact may not be realized until after the policy meeting passes. If the central bank decree aligns with the economic data – whether on risk trend or rate forecasts – it could amplify the ultimate move and charge a true trend. If they conflict, the resulting move will be muted somewhat.

Preparing for the headline deluge and speculative confusion, there is a clear consensus for the Fed meeting. The group has repeatedly insisted the Taper is status quo and a change to rates is not even under consideration. What dollar traders care about is any changes in tone in the statement that clarifies the time frame for the first rate hike or – less likely – raises the possibility of a pause on the Taper. Even a small shift in timing for the Fed’s first tightening would leverage a serious response from the greenback. As for the GDP release, this may alter rate probabilities, but it could prove far more effective in generating a risk trend spark.

Watch both the US GDP release and FOMC rate decision live in the DailyFX Live Trading Room. Sign up for email reminders for the live events.

Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data

While much of the market’s focus will be turned on the US docket, Euro traders should keep close tabs on native event risk due today. The split docket can be split between economic health updates and inflation figures. In the former category, Spain’s first reading of 1Q GDP, German unemployment and Italy labor data are known market-movers (in descending order of historical impact). While these indicators are good headline material, their impact will be quelled by expectations for the inflation measures. A broad range of price measures are due out of the Euro-area, but it is the Eurozone CPI reading for April that will catch the ECB’s eye and therefore traders’ interest. Much of the threat of a rate cut or alternative easing method hangs on the risk of persistently weak inflation. An expected rebound in the core and headline CPI figure could ease that pressure. Yet, if EURUSD rallies towards 1.4000 on the back of the move, policy officials will likely step up their threats.

Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ’s Intentions?

The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy bearings (a target of an annual ¥ 60-70 trillion pace of growth in the money supply) this morning. Given the yen crosses meandering in recent months, some may wonder if there is confusion over the central bank’s intentions for more stimulus. The BoJ has voiced a consistent and somewhat definitive view that more easing would not be needed as inflation is moving towards target and growth will not be permanently stymied by the tax hike. So are USDJPY and crew not toppling? Risk trends is still holding carry stable.

British Pound Unable to Break Despite Heavy Hitting GDP Release

With pairs like GBPUSD and GBPJPY looking at inevitable breakouts in price action alone, the UK 1Q GDP release was a gimme for sparking a bigger sterling move. And yet, the data failed to bear fruit. With the market focusing on anything that can even modestly change the outlook for interest rate forecasts in the UK, the data released in the dead zone. The 0.8 percent growth for the quarter was an acceleration but it fell short of consensus and four-year highs. Looking at swaps, rate speculation is due a breakout as well. Expect this tension to resolve very soon.

New Zealand Yield Collapse Cools, Kiwi’s Retreat Eases

More than actual rate hikes, the New Zealand dollar is depending on forecasts for future increases. The recent retreat in those projections has kept the kiwi from moving higher and has even pulled NZDUSD back to threaten reversal. Looking to the market, 10-year New Zealand yields have slowed their decent, but they are still pressing 8-month lows this morning. If the yield breaks 4.4 percent, AUDNZD may break 1.0900.

Chinese Yuan Slides to a New 18-Month Low as PBoC Says Let Some Assets Fail

Both the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Chinese currency have dropped this morning. Against the greenback, the Renminbi (also referred generally as the Yuan) hit its lowest level since October 2012. This puts the market well on pace for a sizable third consecutive monthly decline. Some say this is a concerted PBoC effort to push the currency down, but capital outflow itself is more than enough.

Emerging Markets Forge Another Rally Pre-Fed

Adjustment in anticipation of the dense round of event risk and FOMC release isn’t just a consideration for the dollar. The MSCI Emerging Market ETF rose 1.0 percent Tuesday and the FX grouping was mixed – though volatile. Though the withdrawal of cheap US funds is particularly important for this group, the Ukraine 1Q GDP release due today is worthy of market participants’ attention given its impact on global markets.

Gold Interest Rising in Leveraged Interest First

Technically, gold fell for the a second straight session Tuesday; but the 0.1 percent slip was modest enough to speak more to inaction than commitment bearishness. The cumulative influence of global growth readings and monetary policy updates is important for this alternative asset. Meanwhile, traders should keep tabs on possible early swells in speculative appetite. Options interest seems to be the first to take.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Ccy

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

JPY

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

No changes expected. It is likely that the BoJ is waiting on more data to see how the tax hike impacted the economy.

JPY

Bank of Japan 2014 Monetary Base Target

¥270T

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)

-2.9%

1.0%

Housing Starts in Japan have been on a sharp decline year-to-date and vehicle production as come off after hitting highs not seen since 2012 back in January.

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)

0.894M

0.919M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)

12.3%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (APR)

53.5

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (MAR)

1.57

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

1.4%

2.0%

Although important, this data is likely to have a muted impact ahead of the Euro-Zone’s key April CPI data.

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

-0.7%

1.3%

7:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (APR)

106.13

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (APR)

-10K

-12K

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

6.7%

6.7%

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (MAR P)

13.0%

13.0%

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR A)

0.8%

--

A miss in EZ CPI figures for April is likely to be seen as incredibly bearish across EUR pairs. Market participants will be noting the mid-April EURUSD gap for resistance in any rallies.

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Core (YoY) (APR A)

1.0%

0.7%

11:00

USD

MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 25)

-3.3%

Expect to see tremendous volatility in USD and CAD pairs at this print despite the FOMC rate decision later in the day. USDCAD presents some unique opportunities if we do see any divergence between misses and beats between the two reports.

12:15

USD

ADP Employment Change (APR)

210K

191K

12:30

USD

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q A)

1.1%

2.6%

12:30

USD

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

1.9%

3.3%

12:30

USD

Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q A)

1.6%

1.6%

12:30

CAD

Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

0.5%

12:30

CAD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (FEB)

2.5%

2.5%

13:45

USD

Chicago Purchasing Manager (APR)

56.5

55.9

14:00

USD

Retail Sales Revisions

18:00

USD

FOMC Rate Decision

0.25%

0.25%

Another $10B reduction in QE3 is expected this week and market participants will be looking for greater follow through in the Treasury market as well as the USDJPY cross.

18:00

USD

Fed QE3 Pace

$45B

$55B

18:00

USD

Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases

$25B

$30B

18:00

USD

Fed Pace of MBS Purchases

$20B

$25B

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)

47.9

In ‘contractionary’ territory over the past 5-months

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

6:30

JPY

BoJ Gov Kuroda Press Conference

7:00

CHF

SNB Releases 1Q 2014 Currency Allocation

19:30

USD

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Central Banking

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

13.5800

2.3800

12.7000

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

7.5800

5.8950

6.5135

Resist 1

13.1500

2.3000

11.8750

7.8075

1.3250

Resist 1

6.8155

5.8475

6.2660

Spot

13.1013

2.1217

10.5561

7.7529

1.2564

Spot

6.5620

5.4054

6.0070

Support 1

12.9650

2.0700

10.2500

7.7490

1.2000

Support 1

6.0800

5.3350

5.7450

Support 2

12.6000

1.7500

9.3700

7.7450

1.1800

Support 2

5.8085

5.2715

5.5655

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\CCY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

Gold

Res 3

1.3895

1.6917

103.32

0.8900

1.1019

0.9350

0.8631

142.77

1315.86

Res 2

1.3873

1.6893

103.13

0.8885

1.1002

0.9331

0.8612

142.48

1310.67

Res 1

1.3852

1.6870

102.93

0.8869

1.0985

0.9313

0.8593

142.18

1305.48

Spot

1.3809

1.6824

102.54

0.8839

1.0952

0.9275

0.8555

141.59

1295.10

Supp 1

1.3766

1.6778

102.15

0.8809

1.0919

0.9237

0.8517

141.00

1284.72

Supp 2

1.3745

1.6755

101.95

0.8793

1.0902

0.9219

0.8498

140.70

1279.53

Supp 3

1.3723

1.6731

101.76

0.8778

1.0885

0.9200

0.8479

140.41

1274.34

v

--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

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The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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30 April 2014 04:16 GMT