Trade FOREX with FXCM

  • Award-Winning Platform
  • 24/7 Customer Support
  • Trade Directly on Charts
  • Free $50K Practice Account

Resources

Dollar Rallies after Fed’s Bernanke Lays Out Taper Timetable

By , Chief Currency Strategist
20 June 2013 00:40 GMT
  • Dollar Rallies after Fed’s Bernanke Lays Out Taper Timetable
  • Japanese Yen: The Bank of Japan’s Troubles Just Doubled
  • Euro: Cyprus Backtracks on Bailout Revamp, Troika to Drop IMF?
  • British Pound: Incoming BoE Governor has a Lot to Digest
  • New Zealand Dollar Stumbles after 1Q GDP Miss
  • Swiss Franc Safe Haven Status in Jeopardy with US Tax Fight
  • Gold Extends Decline, Eyes April Swing Low after Fed Clears Taper

Dollar Rallies after Fed’s Bernanke Lays Out Taper Timetable

As the market had expected / feared, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) clarified its intentions to Taper stimulus in the near future – and the dollar rallied for it. Having avoided the extreme avenues of simply reducing the monthly, $85-billion-per-month injections this month and simply ignoring the costs of stimulus; the Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the group can reduce its pace of purchases later in 2013 and end the program altogether in mid-2014…data providing. There are certainly requirements to meet before support is curbed, but for a market running on record levels of leverage and over-extended in its search for yield; the eventual exit is a severe threat to a delicate balance.

Moving forward, the focus will be the timing of a Fed exit. Barring a steep slump in growth or trend higher in the unemployment rate, the group will no doubt make an effort to acclimatize the market’s to eventual reduction in QE purchases. Given Bernanke is likely to end his tenure by the end of January, there is a limited time frame to act (starting in 2013 is late and you don’t make a big policy move for someone else to navigate). September is most likely the month to move. Such an immediate time frame is a direct threat to those that entered markets near their highs or used excessive leverage. Yet, true risk aversion has yet to take. Watch the S&P 500 at 1,600. Few benchmarks measure moral hazard better.

Japanese Yen: The Bank of Japan’s Troubles Just Doubled

With the US central bank signaling the limitations to its constantly expanding stimulus program, the Bank of Japan’s job has just become far more difficult. In the group’s unspoken objective to devalue the yen to help spur export-led growth, the Japanese authority was incidentally relying on the successful encouragement of risk appetite via stimulus efforts of other global policy groups. No other bank was as successful in investor sentiment as the FOMC – that relative accomplishment can be seen in the incredible consistency of the S&P 500’s bullish pace since 2009. Should global investor confidence start to deteriorate in the wake of the Fed’s warnings, trades thin on meaningful return and driven by excessive leverage will come under heavy pressure. That includes carry trades. Historically, the yield income on yen-based crosses is at or near historical lows, yet the pairs are closer to record highs. Can the BoJ hold back this tide? Not if risk aversion builds momentum…

Euro: Cyprus Backtracks on Bailout Revamp, Troika to Drop IMF?

The last thing policy officials want to do is to set off trigger another flare up in Europe’s ongoing financial struggle. Therefore, it doesn’t surprise that the Cyprus backtracked on its calls to the Troika to soften the requirements on the country’s €10 billion rescue program – as they feared they would be unable to meet the objectives. Today, the government said they are fully committed to the original plan and would need no overhaul. Expect this to be an issue we come back to – but whether or not the market realizes / cares about that now remains to be seen. In other news, Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem suggested the IMF may be removed from the Troika after the crisis is over. As perhaps the most reliable source of funding to the rescue effort, that would be a bold move. Looking ahead to the coming session, there is no rest for active traders. We have timely growth proxies in the June PMI figures and Eurozone Consumer Confidence survey. The Euro-area Finance Ministers meeting will be dissected for any policy suggestions on Cyprus, Greece, Spain, etc. And, keep an eye on bond sales as yields climb.

British Pound: Incoming BoE Governor has a Lot to DigestThe minutes to the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s last meeting were released, and they showed that the central bank was once again in the minority (3-6) in his call to increase stimulus. The reticence to increase support to the economy is interesting when we consider that the UK narrowly avoided a triple dip recession; while the US is pursuing a massive, $85 billion-per-month program while experiencing steady but tame expansion. In a world where the largest central banks have far exceeded the BoE’s efforts, there is a monetary policy-led growth disadvantage. That may be the concern that incoming-Governor Marc Carney may bring with him next. The question, though, is whether he can convince his fellow Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members.

New Zealand Dollar Stumbles after 1Q GDP Miss

Given the shake up in risk trends through the afternoon hours of the New York session, the kiwi dollar was already under pressure. Yet, the selling pressure intensified in the wake of 1Q GDP data enough to actually pushed the New Zealand currency’s decline to outpace that of the hobbled Aussie dollar. While the opening quarter did grow 0.3 percent, it was below expectations and one-fifth the pace of 4Q. Later in the Wellington trading session (2:05 GMT), a government bond auction of 2020, 3.00 percentpaper will measure just how sturdy appetite is.

Swiss Franc Safe Haven Status in Jeopardy with US Tax Fight

It’s official. The Swiss Parliament has rejected a bill that would have allowed the nation’s banks circumvent the nation’s secrecy laws to protect them from US criminal charges. Neither outcome to this policy decision was favorable, but there are different risks to each. Had the government allowed the bill to proceed, it would have eroded the long-term global trust in the country’s renowned banking sector. That role is a fundamental reason the franc is counted amongst the major currencies. Yet, the alternative is to open Swiss banks to US lawsuit that can shut banks down – such a move shuttered the nation’s oldest bank last year – and thereby lead to a national banking crisis. There is still the option for an executive order override. Meanwhile, the upcoming session brings the SNB rate decision and their Financial Stability report. It will be interesting to see if either or both account for the risk related to this political wrangling.

Gold Extends Decline, Eyes April Swing Low after Fed Clears Taper

With the knowledge that the Federal Reserve’s next policy move is likely to be a reduction in its pace of support rather than expansion, gold traders pulled the commodity to its third consecutive daily decline. This is the longest series of declines in a month; but more importantly, the unflattering move is carrying the market’s preferred alternative to traditional fiat currencies back towards its April low. Given the metal’s diminished capacity as a pure safe haven (volatility like that in April is not reserve worthy) or a high return asset (there is no yield in gold); the focus is back on its ability to stand in as a ‘currency’ that isn’t central bank distorted. Yet, since the Fed introduced QE3 in September, gold dropped over 20 percent. Unless a global financial crisis hits, bulls will struggle to retake $1,500 – much less $2,000.

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transaction (Australian dollar) (MAY)

382M

01:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (JUN)

49.3

49.2

With fears of a Chinese slowdown, the market will take note of any missed estimates.

06:00

CHF

Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (MAY)

2.40B

1.73B

The market will be looking for signs of a rebound in the data after extremely disappointing prints for April.

06:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (MAY)

-7.6%

06:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (MAY)

-0.1%

-0.2%

Any missed estimates so close to the 0% level will stir concerns of deflation.

06:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (MAY)

0.3%

0.1%

07:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (JUN P)

47

46.4

Data has struggled to remain over 50 in the past two years, indicating a decline.

07:00

EUR

French PMI Services (JUN P)

44.8

44.3

07:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-2.6%

Negative data over previous months put more pressure on the BoJ to fight deflation.

07:30

CHF

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

0.00%

0.00%

No indications of a policy change have been seen.

07:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (JUN A)

49.9

49.4

Estimates point to higher prints over previous months. These improvements signal a significantly stronger Euro-zone versus this time last year.

08:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN A)

48.1

47.7

08:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JUN A)

48.6

48.3

08:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN A)

47.5

47.2

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY)

0.5%

0.2%

Improving data has pushed GBP higher in recent weeks. Any disappointments here may raise questions about the latest run.

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)

1.0%

-1.4%

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)

0.8%

-1.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUN)

4

4

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (JUN)

-14

-20

12:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 15)

340K

334K

Although Bernanke set the tone of Wednesday, jobless and housing data will be noted after strong directions in recent weeks.

12:30

USD

Continuing Claims (JUN 8)

2973K

12:58

USD

Markit US PMI Preliminary (JUN)

52.5

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)

0.6%

0.6%

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MAY)

5.00M

4.97M

14:00

USD

Leading Indicators (MAY)

0.2%

0.6%

14:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed. (JUN)

-1

-5.2

14:00

USD

API Monthly Statistical Report

14:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN A)

-21.5

-21.9

The last print was the strongest in almost a year.

14:30

USD

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUN 14)

95

Historical patterns show higher readings during the summer months.

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

2:05

NZD

New Zealand Sells Bonds

4:30

CHF

SNB to Release Financial Stability Report

-:-

EUR

European People’s Party Meeting (13 EU Leaders)

8:30

EUR

Spain to Sell 8 and 10-Year Bonds

13:00

EUR

Euro-Area Finance Ministers Eurogroup Meeting

17:00

USD

US to Sell 30-Year TIPS (Inflation-Protected Treasuries)

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

15.0000

2.0000

10.7000

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

7.5800

5.8950

6.1150

Resist 1

12.9000

1.9000

10.2500

7.8075

1.3250

Resist 1

6.8155

5.8300

5.9365

Spot

12.6508

1.8635

9.8671

7.7638

1.2504

Spot

6.4843

5.5860

5.7475

Support 1

12.0000

1.6500

9.3700

7.7490

1.2000

Support 1

6.0800

5.6075

5.7400

Support 2

11.5200

1.5725

8.9500

7.7450

1.1800

Support 2

5.8085

5.4440

5.5000

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Resist. 3

1.3471

1.5837

96.50

0.9339

1.0246

0.9728

0.8187

128.84

151.40

Resist. 2

1.3441

1.5805

96.12

0.9312

1.0226

0.9696

0.8159

128.34

150.84

Resist. 1

1.3412

1.5772

95.74

0.9285

1.0207

0.9665

0.8130

127.83

150.29

Spot

1.3353

1.5707

94.98

0.9231

1.0168

0.9602

0.8073

126.82

149.18

Support 1

1.3294

1.5642

94.22

0.9177

1.0129

0.9539

0.8016

125.81

148.08

Support 2

1.3265

1.5609

93.84

0.9150

1.0110

0.9508

0.7987

125.30

147.52

Support 3

1.3235

1.5577

93.46

0.9123

1.0090

0.9476

0.7959

124.80

146.97

v

--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from

20 June 2013 00:40 GMT