- Australia Employment Expected to Increase for Third Consecutive Month.
- Jobless Rate to Hold Steady at Annualized 6.3% for Second Month.
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Trading the News: Australia Employment Change
Australia Employment is projected to increase another 5.0K in December and a positive development may encourage a more meaningful rebound in AUD/USD as it raises the fundamental outlook for the $1T economy.
What’s Expected:
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Why Is This Event Important:
A further improvement in labor market conditions may limit the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) scope to revert back to its easing cycle and heighten the appeal of the aussie central bank Governor Glenn Stevens continues to endorse a period of interest rate stability.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
| Release | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Building Approvals (MoM) (NOV) | -3.0% | 7.5% |
| Private Sector Credit (MoM) (NOV) | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Company Operating Profits (QoQ) (3Q) | -1.3% | 0.5% |
The resilience in building activity paired with the ongoing expansion in private sector credit may fuel a better-than-expected print, and a marked rise in employment may generate a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as the pair holds above the opening monthly low (0.8031).
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
| Release | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| NAB Business Confidence (NOV) | -- | 1 |
| Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (3Q) | 0.7% | 0.3% |
However, the persistent slack in private sector activity may continue to drag on the labor market, and the RBA may show a greater willingness to implement additional monetary support in an effort to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy.
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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bullish AUD Trade: Australia Employment Climbs Another 5.0K or Greater
- Need green, five-minute candle following the report for a potential long AUD/USD trade
- If market reaction favors a long aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
Bearish AUD Trade: Labor Market Report Disappoints
- Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position
- Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction
Read More:
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SPX500 Potential Head-and-Shoulders Top Coming Into Focus
Potential Price Targets For The Release
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite the break of the bearish RSI momentum, lack of momentum to close above the 0.8200 handle may continue to produce range-bound prices in AUD/USD.
- Interim Resistance: 0.8200 pivot to 0.8210 (23.6% retracement)
- Interim Support: 0.8000 pivot to 0.8020 (100% expansion).
Impact that Australia Employment Change has had on AUD during the last release
| Period | Data Released | Estimate | Actual | Pips Change | Pips Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOV 2014 | 12/11/2014 00:30 GMT | 15.0K | 42.7K | +11 | +3 |
November 2014 Australia Employment Change
Australia added 42.7K jobs in November to mark the biggest advance in more than two years, while the jobless rate rose to a 12-year high of 6.3% from 6.2% the month prior as discouraged workers returned to the labor force. Despite the better-than-expected print, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may keep the benchmark interest rate at the record low for an extended period of time as Governor Glenn Stevens continues to highlight the ongoing slack in the $1T economy. Nevertheless, the bullish reaction in the Australian dollar following the data was short-lived, with AUD/USD falling back soon and ended the Asian-Pacific session at 0.8332.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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