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FX Headlines: Bank of England Minutes to Provide Pre-FOMC Volatility

By , Currency Strategist
18 September 2013 07:45 GMT

Talking Points

- BoE Minutes highlight quiet calendar.

- Market volatility expected to remain low until post-FOMC.

- Event risk is heavy the next two days starting in Europe.

To keep up with the European data and news as the week goes forward, be sure to sign up for my distribution list.

EURO-ZONE ECONOMIC CALENDAR

There is no data on the Euro economic calendar for Wednesday, September 18.

See the Euro economic calendar for the week of September 15 to 20.

Read more: Euro Lifted by Best ZEW Surveys Since 2009; Pound Struggles after CPI

UK ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_Bank_of_England_Minutes_to_Provide_Pre-FOMC_Volatility_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: Bank of England Minutes to Provide Pre-FOMC Volatility

The Bank of England will release their September meeting Minutes today and the report should provide a much needed spark of volatility; trading conditions have been eerily quiet the past 24-hours as market participants anxiously await the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later today.

The British Pound rallied immedately after the September 5 policy announcement, although it had given back most of its gains within an hour or so. Nevertheless, the lack of a policy statement or addendum may suggest that doves are losing ground: the July policy meeting accompanied a statement; and the August meeting was buttressed by the Quarterly Inflation Report, which detailed the BoE’s forward guidance plans.

Accordingly, with UK economic data broadly improving over the past several months, the view that additional QE might be required is likely waning. Certainly, as economic activity increases, it would be natural to see interest rates rise; perhaps some members view the recent tighter financial conditions as justified given recent data.

As such, it is likely that the BoE’s Minutes reveal that the committee is in “wait-and-see” mode, which could benefit the British Pound as the likelihood of additional QE – a policy tool Governor Carney himself has suggested might be appropriate – is shelved for the foreseeable future.

Read more: Will CPI Figures Help or Hurt British Pound?

SWISS ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_Bank_of_England_Minutes_to_Provide_Pre-FOMC_Volatility_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: Bank of England Minutes to Provide Pre-FOMC Volatility

Read more: Gold Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed – Bearish Below $1373

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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18 September 2013 07:45 GMT