Talking Points
- AUDUSD rebound testing initial resistance (bearish invalidation)
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
- Event Risk on Tap This Week
AUDUSD Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDUSD breaks previous week’s high for the first time since June- constructive
- Rally now testing initial resistance at multi-month median-line parallel (~7425)- bearish invalidation
- Breach targets resistance objectives at 7468, 7540 & 7590-7613
- Support at weekly ORL 7260 backed by 7177 & key support into 7130/35
- Daily RSI resistance trigger breach- bullish
- Key Event Risk Ahead: Australian Employment Tomorrow and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
AUDUSD 30min
Notes: Aussie pushed through last week’s highs on the back of the RBA interest rate decision with the rally now testing a near-term resistance confluence into the 7425 zone. Intraday momentum has broken to its highest levels since early June with an ascending median-line formation off last week’s lows keeping long-scalps in focus while above the ML / last week’s highs at 7366. A breach above highlighted resistance would suggest a larger-scale reversal may be underway with such a scenario targeting subsequent objectives at 7468/74 & 7532/40.
Bottom line: we’ll be looking to buy pullbacks / resistance triggers while above the ML with a break below the weekly opening range low needed to shift the focus back to the short-side targeting key support at 7177 & 7130/35. A quarter of the daily Average True Range yields profit targets of 22-25pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into Key Australian & U.S. event risk this week with employment data likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie & Dollar crosses.
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Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- NZDUSD Breakout or Fake-Out? Key Levels to Know Ahead of FOMC, US GDP
- Webinar: Key USD Scalp Levels For Month End- GBP Crosses in Focus
- GBPJPY Defends Monthly Open- Weekly Range Break to Validate Long Bias
- Webinar: Euro Faces May Lows- USD Outlook Murky at Three Month Highs
- Key EURUSD Levels to Know Ahead of the ECB, US CPI
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex,contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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