Talking Points
- AUDUSD weekly/monthly opening range break in focus
- Constructive bias at risk just below near-term resistance- 7900
- Key Event Risk on Tap
AUD/USD Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDUSD breaks weekly/monthly opening range- constructive
- Now testing confluence resistance into the 79-handle- bearish invalidation
- Breach targets objectives at 7938 / September TL & 8022/38
- Support at yesterday’s low/ lower median line- bullish invalidation
- Daily RSI targets former support trigger / 50 threshold- breach would be bullish
- Note pending support trigger in momentum
- Event Risk Ahead: US CPI on Thursday, 4Q GDP on Friday and RBA next week
AUD/USD 30min
Notes: Aussie has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined pitchfork formation off the lows with the pullback earlier in the week rebounding off the lower median line parallel. The subsequent rally broke through the weekly opening range high at 7847, validating our topside scalp bias with an accompanied breach above 60 in intra-day RSI before stalling just ahead of confluence resistance into the 7900-handle.
Momentum divergence into the highs here warn of a possible pullback off this region – That said, we’ll remain constructive while above the weekly opening range high with a breach above 7900 targeting 7938 & the September TL resistance. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at 7975 & 8022/38. Interim support rests at 7870 backed by our near-term bullish invalidation level at 7847 and 7825. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 22-25 pips per scalp.Caution is warranted heading into event risk later this week US CPI on Thursday and the second revision on US 4Q GDP on Friday likely to fuel added volatility in USD based pairs. The main event for this pair comes next week with the RBA Interest Decision on tap for Monday.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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