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NZDUSD Rallies Into Key Resistance on RBNZ- Bearish Below 8580

By , Currency Strategist
13 March 2014 21:31 GMT

Talking Points

  • NZDUSD reacts to key resistance confluence- 8582
  • Scalp focus shifts against this region- 8380 key support
  • Minor event risk on tap from US tomorrow

NZDUSD Daily Chart

Forex_NZDUSD_Rallies_Into_Key_Resistance_on_RBNZ-__Bearish_Below_8580_body_Picture_2.png, NZDUSD Rallies Into Key Resistance on RBNZ-  Bearish Below 8580

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDUSD responds to key resistance 8582- bearish invalidation
  • Rally at risk below this level- Breach targets 8674, 8761 & 8792
  • Support objectives at 8450, 8380/92& 8260
  • Daily RSI support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: US Michigan Confidence on Friday

NZDUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_NZDUSD_Rallies_Into_Key_Resistance_on_RBNZ-__Bearish_Below_8580_body_Picture_1.png, NZDUSD Rallies Into Key Resistance on RBNZ-  Bearish Below 8580

Notes: The NZDUSD has responded to key resistance at the confluence of a trendline resistance dating back to the 2011 high, operative channel resistance, the May 2013 high and the 100% and 61.8% longer-term Fibonacci extensions at 8582. Although the weekly opening range broke to the topside with the move above 8473, the rally into key resistance and subsequent rejection has shifted our immediate focus against this threshold.

The 30min chart shows a false break above operative channel resistance with the pullback taking the momentum signature to its lowest levels of the week. Bottom line: we’ll be looking to sell rallies with RSI conviction while below 8580 with only a break below channel support offering further evidence that a more significant high was put in this week. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

8550

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8580/82

61.8% & 100% Ext(s) / May High / 2011 TL Res

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

8600

2014 High / Soft Resistance

Break Target 2

30min

8625

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

8674

88.6% Retracement / April High

Break Target 4

30min

8700

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 5

Daily

8761

August 8th 2011 Close (2011 High Day)

Break Target 1

Daily

8790

1.618% Extension

Support Target 1

30min

8518

23.6% Retracement / US Session Low

Support Target 2

30min

8473

50% Retrace / Initial Weekly ORH

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8442/52

61.8% Ext / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 1

30min

8423

50% Retracement / Feb 28 High

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8380/92

61.8% & 38.2% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

8343

March ORL / Pivot

Break Target 4

30min

8319

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

8261

61.8% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)

66

Profit Targets 15-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

Monthly open high 2009

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars Monday-Thursday mornings next week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

13 March 2014 21:31 GMT