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EURNZD Scalps Eye Weekly Opening Range- Bullish Above 1.6360

By , Currency Strategist
25 November 2013 19:29 GMT

Talking Points

  • EURNZD makes clean weekly opening range- Scalps eye breakout
  • Looking to buy dips above 1.6360/71- bullish invalidation
  • Caution: New Zealand & Eurozone event risk ahead amid thin holiday trade

EURNZD Daily Chart

Forex_EURNZD_Scalps_Eye_Weekly_Opening_Range-_Bullish_Above_1.6360_body_EURNZD_Daily.png, EURNZD Scalps Eye Weekly Opening Range- Bullish Above 1.6360

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURNZD fails at near-term resistance- Weekly opening range play pending
  • Topside resistance 1.6552/70- Breach targets objectives at 1.6754/57, 1.6891, 1.6983
  • Scalp bias bullish above 1.6415/37
  • Constructive above 1.6360/71- Bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI topside trigger pending- near-term failure ahead of 60 warns correction
  • Key Event Ahead: New Zealand Trade balance Data Tomorrow and Eurozone CPI & Unemployment on Friday

EURNZD Scalp Chart

Forex_EURNZD_Scalps_Eye_Weekly_Opening_Range-_Bullish_Above_1.6360_body_EURNZD_SCALP.png, EURNZD Scalps Eye Weekly Opening Range- Bullish Above 1.6360

Notes: The weekly opening range on the EURNZD has formed between two key thresholds and conviction on our near-term directional bias will be based on a breakout of this range (1.6415/36 – 1.6570/93). The November highs were compromised on Friday and although our scalp bias turns neutral with a break below near-term support, our broader bias remains weighted to the topside above 1.6370. We will look to buy on dips / breaks of resistance with a breach above the highs targeting topside scalp objectives into the 1.6725/54 initial resistance range. Note that the daily average true range is rather healthy at here at 173pips and prudent risk-management is recommended on such a long-range scalp.

The November opening range did break to the topside and as such, we would expect to close the month not too far off these highs. Having said that, it’s important to note that thin holiday trade conditions are likely to prevail as we head into the close of this shortened month and price action may lack conviction as we close out the week. Keep an eye out for the economic data out over the next few days as our focus shifts to the December opening range heading into next.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.6525

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.6570/93

100% Ext / 50% Retrace / Wkly Open High

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.6635

November High

Break Target 2

30min

1.6680

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.6725/54

October High / 23.6% & 61.8% Retraces

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.6800

Big Figure / Psychological Level

Break Target 5

Daily

1.6891

1.618% Fib Extension

Support Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.6415/37

11/12 High / 61.8% & 38.2% Fibs / Wkly Open Low

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.6360/71

38.2% Retrace / 61.8% Ext / Jan High

Break Target 1

30min

1.6320

50% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

1.6276

50% Fib Extension

Break Target 3

30min

1.6230

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

1.61.92

61.8% Fib Extension

Average True Range

Daily

173

Profit Targets 42-45pips

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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25 November 2013 19:29 GMT