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GBP Threatens Support on US Debt Deal- Bearish Scalp Bias at Risk

By , Currency Strategist
16 October 2013 20:44 GMT

Talking Points

  • October price action continues to suggest bearish bias is warranted- pair now at key support
  • Risks to our near-term bias on improving UK data, channel support
  • Key near-term support at 1.5918- scalp bias at risk above this threshold

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Forex_GBP_Threatens_Support_on_US_Debt_Deal-_Bearish_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_body_GBPUSD_DAILY.png, GBP Threatens Support on US Debt Deal- Bearish Scalp Bias at Risk

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPUSD October opening range break keeps focus on the short side
  • Now testing operative channel support dating back to July low
  • Key interim support remains 1.5918- Break targets objectives at 1.5780 & 1.5707
  • Pending RSI Trigger break below 50 to offer further conviction
  • Interim resistance 1.61- backed by 1.6202 & 1.6253
  • Scalp bias turns neutral above 1.6050- Bullish above 1.6120 (last week’s high)
  • Key Events Ahead: UK September Retail Sales & US Debt Ceiling / Gov’t Shutdown debate

GBPUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBP_Threatens_Support_on_US_Debt_Deal-_Bearish_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_body_GBPUSD_Scalp.png, GBP Threatens Support on US Debt Deal- Bearish Scalp Bias at Risk

Notes: I’ve been in and out of the pound on the short side for the majority of the week as we test the 1.5918/22 support range. The last attempt penetrated into the 1.59- handle before mounting a 70 pip rally off the lows into former support at 1.5965. While some of the move can be attributed to the ongoing headlines coming out of Washington, it should be respected and we will continue to favor selling into resistance with RSI conviction as long as we hold below the weekly range high / channel resistance. A clear break below (and close) 1.5918 looks to target subsequent support objectives.

Two important things I think we should keep in mind here; 1- Strong UK data, including unemployment, housing and inflation, have been unable to halt the broader decline off the October high (made on October 1st*) suggesting that momentum remains heavy in the near-term. 2- The reversal off the high was at a key technical level; 1.6253 is the highest close of the year made on January 2nd (Oct high 1.6259) with the nature of the decline exemplifying notable structure. That said, we are at support and a reversal back above last week’s highs shifts the near-term focus back to the topside with a break above the monthly highs challenging trendline resistance dating back to the 2009 high, currently just shy of the 1.63-handle.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.5965

61.8% Fib Ext

Resistance Target 2

30min

1.60

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

30min

1.6030

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 1

30min

1.6071

50% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.61 – 1.6114

Big Figure / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

1.6145

Mid-Sept High / Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.6202

88.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily

1.6253

2013 Close High (Jan) / October High

Support Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.5918/22

78.6% Fib Ext / 23.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

30min

1.5890

Monthly Low / Soft Support

Break Target 1

30min

1.5867

100% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

30min

1.5830

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.5782

61.8% Retracement / Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily

1.5750

June High / Soft Support

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.5707/10

1.618& Fib Ext / 38.2% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

103

Profit Targets 24-26pips

Other Scalp Setups in Play: USDCHF Scalp Bias at Risk Below 0.9170 Resistance

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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16 October 2013 20:44 GMT