Oil, Metals Technical Positioning Hints Down Move Ahead

Commodities – Energy

Crude Prices Position to Correct Lower Ahead of Friday’s NFP Report

Crude Oil (WTI)       $82.50       -$0.68       -0.82%
Oil prices surpassed the $82 level to find resistance at the top of a rising channel that had guided trading since the swing lows of mid-December. The hint of emerging negative RSI divergence suggests a pullback is ahead, with initial support fist seen at $81.78 and followed by the channel bottom, now at $80.45. Weekly US Jobless Claims figures headline the data docket but forecasts call for relatively minor changes from the previous week’s results. On balance, all eyes are now on Friday’s NFP report, which could open the door for a technically driven correction in the interim.




Commodities – Metals

Gold, Silver Technical Positioning Suggests Downswing Ahead

Gold       $1129.23       -$9.18        -0.81%
Gold prices met horizontal support-turned-resistance at $1141.05 and turned lower, testing beck below the upper boundary of a rising channel set from late December’s swing low. A break past this juncture will expose the next layer of support in the $1117.90 – $1124.28 congestion region. The metal continues to have a significant inverse correlation with the outlook for US monetary policy (as expressed by the spread between Dec’2010 and Mar’2010 fed funds futures), which leaves the upcoming weekly jobless claims figures as the only significant bit of scheduled event risk before Friday’s all-important NFP report.

Silver       $18.09       -$0.11       -0.59%
Silver prices are showing negative RSI divergence below resistance at $18.35 level, hinting that that a corrective decline is ahead. A move lower from here will see initial support at $17.79. As with gold, a significant inverse correlation with the spread between December and March 2010 fed funds futures will mean that today’s weekly jobless claims figures (and their implications the US economic recovery and thereby monetary policy) are the key catalyst to watch on the economic calendar.




For real time news and analysis, please visit http://forexstream.dailyfx.com

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com