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Critical Week for Forex Markets - US Dollar Might Turn

By , Quantitative Strategist
29 April 2013 16:00 GMT

Article Summary: A critical week for forex markets promises big volatility in USD and JPY pairs, but we’ll trade defensively until we see clear trends develop in the new trading month.

DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals It will be a critical week for forex markets as the key US FOMC and ECB rate decisions promise big moves across major currency pairs.

Yet the potential for volatility does not necessarily benefit our high volatility Breakout2 trading strategy; last week’s choppy market conditions in Japanese Yen currency pairs have forced a shift in our own strategy biases and will force us to trade defensively until further notice.

Indeed, FX options markets show that volatility prices on JPY pairs have fallen noticeably in the past week—a warning sign that Breakout trading may do less-well going forward.

1- Week DailyFX Forex Volatility Index Versus JPY Volatility Index (JPYVIX1W) and Non-JPY Volatility (NonJPYVIX1W)

forex_trading_strategy_ahead_of_critical_week_body_Picture_1.png, Critical Week for Forex Markets - US Dollar Might Turn

Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

US Dollar currency pairs have actually seen a pickup in short-dated volatility expectations, and we might expect big moves following the highly-anticipated US FOMC Rate decision and end-of-week Nonfarm Payrolls data. This lines up well with the fact that we’re now entering a new trading month.

Forex seasonality studies will show that the beginning and end of a time period will often produce important highs/lows in key currency pairs, and the potential for a substantive USD turn is clear.

The clear level of uncertainty means we’ll be trading with reduced leverage in the week ahead, but the potential for a major dollar turnaround leaves us mostly in favor of our fast-shifting Momentum2 trading system.

View the table below to see our strategy preferences broken down by currency pair.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

forex_trading_strategy_ahead_of_critical_week_body_x0000_i1026.png, Critical Week for Forex Markets - US Dollar Might Turn

forex_trading_strategy_ahead_of_critical_week_body_1a.png, Critical Week for Forex Markets - US Dollar Might Turn

View how to automate the high-volatility Breakout2 Trading System via our previous article and webinar recording

Auto trade the trend reversal-trading Momentum2system via our previous article and webinar recording.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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29 April 2013 16:00 GMT