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Remain Long USDCHF; Pending Short AUDUSD, Long GBPCHF

By Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
07 January 2011 15:48 GMT

The USDCHF remains relatively unchanged for a second straight day despite the dismal U.S. labor force report. Indeed, I am long from 0.9514 with an open target as my overall bias is to the upside; stop at 0.9565. While the pair has found support at the 20-day SMA, it is worth noting that the MACD and our user defined slow stochastic indicators signal for additional gains in the pair. However, warranting some concern is the fact that our speculative sentiment index stands at 2.0, providing the contrarian signal to sell the USDCHF.

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Looking ahead, I will be keeping a close eye on the AUDUSD, in particular, a break below the rising channel dating back to May. A break below this area may expose downside risks towards the 0.95 area in the medium term. Meanwhile, the GBPCHF looks poised to break above its descending channel dating back to the middle of November. As spending cuts in the U.K. are expected to weigh on growth, traders should place a trailing stop if price action manages to break above the congested area.

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07 January 2011 15:48 GMT