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Most Trends are Easing Up but EURUSD and GBPUSD Holding onto Gains

By John Kicklighter, Sr. Currency Strategist
24 November 2010 18:53 GMT

We are in the final lap of full liquidity this trading week as the US markets are already winding down in anticipation of the market holiday tomorrow (and the traditionally dead trading conditions of the Friday that follows Thanksgiving). Yet, have seen some interesting developments so far this week and further interesting developments just today. Aside from the big ticket fundamental waves in European financial troubles, scheduled data, Korean tensions and general risk appetite volatility; it is interesting to note that many of these assets and markets are one step into major new trends. That puts considerable tension on this market. It also makes for a difficult trading decision. Just as with the weekend, it is not typically good practice to maintain positions through periods of unusual liquidity/volatility conditions. Balance that with the great trading opportunities that seem to be there. However, the decision is actually much easier for me. My range of active trades going into today's session have alread taken their first targets and have had their stops trailed up beyond breakeven (meaning the worst that can happen - barring a catastrophic market event that creates huge gaps - I will just be stopped out on this second half with the overall position ultimately well in the money).

As for my range of setups currently playing out their part in the market, I have five actives. My USDJPY is still my long-term appeal; and my hard stop is set far back. Instead, with this pair, I may consider a close back below the 50-day SMA a discretionary exit signal. The shorter-term positions still look good. The remaining position size for both my EURUSD short from 1.3650 and GBPUSD short from 1.6035 have stops that have been moved up beyond breakeven. The same is true of NZDUSD. None of these pairs have really budged in today's trade. A new one from overnight (updated on the Real Time News feed) was a short EURCAD from 1.3630. Though there were a few technical levels still below it at that point, a meaningful break of a major pivot and the 100-day SMA suggested momentum would carry it through. It already hit the first target of 100 points this morning; and the stop on the remaining half is to be moved up to breakeven plus 50 pips.

For potentials, I have actually culled a few from the list because of the choppy price action and fals breaks expected before a liquidity drain. I expect more pairs to drop off the list over the second half of the week. I will be on vacation for the remainder of the week; but there are a few potential trades that will keep me looking at the charts. My favorite amont them is AUDCAD. I have talked abou this pair a lot; but its technical setup is the most appealing I have seen in some time. A similar profile is cut by AUDUSD; but here we have the distortion of the US dollar (though don't write off the influence that risk trends can have even in thin speculative liquidity). Then there is EURNZD. This is an immediate setup and one I am considering entering before I board my flight. In addition we have GBPCAD, GBPNZD and CADJPY among a few others.

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24 November 2010 18:53 GMT