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DailyFX Home / Analyst Picks / David Rodriguez

Short EURAUD Against the High, Tighten Stop

By , Quantitative Strategist
02 March 2012 17:15 GMT

I recently wrote: "I like a EURAUD short against the highs at 1.2428. A minimum 1:1 Risk/Reward means that my first target will need to be the next low at 1.2228. But realistically I'm targeting fresh lows."

Full justification (from original post) is below. I still like the trade and my reasoning remains the same. The only change today is that I'm shifting my stop as I like 1.2345 as a max risk level. First target remains 1.2228, but that's there as reference and I'm unlikely to take anything off the trade there. I would likely change my tune if se see a test of 1.2150 and would probably take some profits.

Original justification: "Why? 'Risk' is on as the S&P 500 Rallies and the S&P's Volatility Index (VIX) trades near pre-Lehman lows. The strongly negative correlation between the VIX and AUDUSD points to further Aussie upside.

All the while, I think there's real risk that the EURUSD set an important short-term top. Why not go through the individual pairs? For one, being efficient with available margin in my own trading account. The other--I like the downtrend in the EURAUD. "

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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02 March 2012 17:15 GMT