- Short GBPUSD at 1.5390, Stop at 1.5540, Target 1 at 1.5280, Target 2 at 1.5170, Target 3 at 1.5030
Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week
The GBPUSD is rising fast but is heading into a conflux of resistance around 1.5400. The level is easily identifiable on the H4 and daily timeframes, with the 38.2% Fib yearly high/low and the 61.8% Fib June high to July low at 1.5390/400. With no truly major data due this week, there are a number of themes to watch that are likely to guide price action; and technical trading (not driven by commentary or headlines but rather by pure price action) is more likely in my opinion.
Fundamentally, British Pound strength may be short lived. From the onset, the intention of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been to clarify policy and be more transparent; the introduction of forward guidance was intended to help in the pursuit of this goal. And the goal is to let market participants know that UK interest rates will be kept lower for the foreseeable future. Yet the reaction seen in the Sterling says that ‘no additional easing’ from Carney equates to ‘tightening.’ The BoE will take note and recalibrate quickly, which should weaken the British Pound in due time.
I also host a weekly Live Trading Q&A in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 06:00 EDT / 10:00 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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