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The rally in Gold over the past two-months has been impressive and especially so over the past few weeks following the break of key Fibonacci related resistance at 1348. However, as we have mentioned in recent Price & Time notes, the cyclical outlook will be turning less positive in the next few days. At the same time the metal is facing these cyclical headwinds it is nearing critical resistance at 1440. We consider this area critical as it is the 100% projection (measured move) of the July advance as measured from the August 7th low and is thus a natural potential stopping point for the metal in both a short and longer-term context. With sentiment studies also near levels of excessive optimism we like the risk/reward profile of positioning counter-trend for a few days.
XAU/USD Daily Chart: August 28, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
Key Event Risks in Coming Sessions:
LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance: 1423.70 (June High), 1441 (Fibonacci)
Support: 1385 (Gann), 1348(Fibonacci)
STRATEGY – Sell XAU/USD later this week
Entry: Sell XAU/USD at 1440
Stop: 1-day close above 1458
Target 1: 1400
Target 2: 1385
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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