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AUDUSD Breaks Below Rising Channel On the 15 Minute Chart, Is This a Short Term Correction Ahead of a Larger Reversal?

By Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
14 October 2010 15:01 GMT

Potential 24 Hour Setups

Currency Pair

Potential Target

Pivot Support

Pivot Resistance

Short AUDUSD

0.9870

1.0100

0.9800

*Trade updates during the course of the day will be provided through our real time news page.

Review of Price Action on the Previous Day’s Trade

Currency

Entry

Potential Target

Close

Pending Short AUDUSD

--Failed to Trigger--

--

--

After working its way into an ascending channel, the AUDUSUD has finally broken below the lower bounds of the area and now looks poised to test the broader range, which is approximately 0.9870. Indeed, the pair is trading deeply within overbought levels, and a major correction to the downside looks apparent over the next upcoming days/weeks. With a light economic docket for the rest of the day, market participants will shift their focus to the slew of data. On tap are the U.S. inflation, advance retail sales, empire manufacturing, and the U. of Michigan confidence reports. Better than expected readings could generate support for the U.S. dollar as the buck gets punished across the board as of late. All in all, look to enter a short position with a stop at 0.997. If price action moves in our favor, place a trailing stop order. It is worth noting that our speculative sentiment index now stands at -2.46, and signals for further gains.

AUDUSD 15 Minute Chart

AUDUSD_Breaks_Below_Rising_Channel_on_15_Minute_Chart_body_audusd2.png, AUDUSD Breaks Below Rising Channel On the 15 Minute Chart, Is This a Short Term Correction Ahead of a Larger Reversal?

Charts Created Using FXCM’s Strategy Trader

Close: 0.9930

SSI: -2.46

Retail positioning relates to our speculative sentiment index which illustrates where traders are at in the market. The larger the retail positioning is within the highlighted area, the more likely it is that longs exceed shorts or vice versa. We will look to use this indicator in conjunction with other technical developments to dictate price action over the next 24 hours.

Every day at 16:00 GMT, we analyze potential 24 hour trade set ups. The trade is no longer valid if it is not triggered by 16:00 GMT the next day. Good luck trading!

Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at mwright@fxcm.com

Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical’s, Weekly Spotlight, Intraday Trading, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast

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14 October 2010 15:01 GMT