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Australian Dollar Under Pressure But Fails to Break Below Trend Line

By Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
07 September 2010 16:00 GMT

Potential 24 Hour Setups

Currency Pair

Potential Target

Pivot Support

Pivot Resistance

Pending AUDUSD Short

0.9030

0.8974

0.9284

*Trade updates during the course of the day will be provided through our real time news page.

Review of Price Action on the Previous Day’s Trade

Currency

Entry

Potential Target

Close

Pending Long USDCAD

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--

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*Price Action is From My Last Report on September 2nd

The Australian dollar has halted its two day advance today, and now looks poised to test the rising trend line, dating back to Wednesday on the 15 minute chart. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia released their interest rate decision overnight in which the central bank refrained from firing rates for the fourth successive month. RBA’s governor said that monetary policy is appropriate for the “time being,” which was more upbeat than last month’s statement. However, the currency markets ignored Mr. Stevens’ words as the outcome was priced into the markets, while risk aversion regained its footing. If momentum continues its southern journey and breaks below the trend line on the intraday chart, I would not rule further downside risks as strength in the low yielding U.S. dollar will likely carry over into tomorrow’s trade as the pair reverses course after nearing overbought territories. An unexpected optimistic Fed’s Beige book may serve as the catalyst needed for the greenback.

AUDUSD 15 Minute Chart

, Australian Dollar Under Pressure But Fails to Break Below Trend Line

Charts Created Using FXCM’s Strategy Trader

Close: 0.91185

SSI: -2.51

Retail positioning relates to our speculative sentiment index which illustrates where traders are at in the market. The larger the retail positioning is within the highlighted area, the more likely it is that longs exceed shorts or vice versa. We will look to use this indicator in conjunction with other technical developments to dictate price action over the next 24 hours.

Every day at 16:00 GMT, we analyze potential 24 hour trade set ups. The trade is no longer valid if it is not triggered by 16:00 GMT the next day. Good luck trading!

Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at mwright@fxcm.com

Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical’s, Weekly Spotlight, Intraday Trading, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast

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07 September 2010 16:00 GMT