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Downside Risks Remain for the GBPUSD as the Pair Struggles to Break Above the 200-day SMA

By Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
25 August 2010 16:04 GMT

Potential 24 Hour Setups

Currency Pair

Potential Target

Pivot Support

Pivot Resistance

Pending GBPYSD Short @ 1.550

1.5370

1.5573

1.5281

*Trade updates during the course of the day will be provided through our real time news page.

Review of Price Action on the Previous Day’s Trade

Currency

Entry

Potential Target

Close

USDJPY

--(Entry failed to get triggered)

--

--

*Price Action is From My Last Report on August 23rd

The GBPUSD has halted its three day decline to reach an intraday high of 1.5470. However, upside price action looks to be capped by the 200-day moving average. Following the break below the rising trend line, I do not rule out downside risks back towards the 50-day SMA subsequent to a retest of 1.5500 over the next 24 hours. With a relatively light economic docket from the U.K. on Thursday, an unexpected initial jobless claims reading may serve as the catalyst needed for the pair to tumble back towards 1.5370. Additionally, broader global concerns may lead traders to seek safety, which will in turn lead the U.S. dollar to strengthen against the British pound. Taking a look at the daily chart, the pair has worked itself into a narrow range. Thus, if price action maintains its descending channel, this will validate my position. All in all, for the next 24 hours, I will look to place a short entry position at 1.5500, with a target at 1.5370, and a stop at 1.5590.

GBPUSD 15 Minute Chart

Downside_Risks_Remain_for_the_GBPUSD_Over_the_Next_24_Hours_body_gbpusd.png, Downside Risks Remain for the GBPUSD as the Pair Struggles to Break Above the 200-day SMA

Charts Created Using FXCM’s Strategy Trader

SSI: -1.088

Retail positioning relates to our speculative sentiment index which illustrates where traders are at in the market. The larger the retail positioning is within the highlighted area, the more likely it is that longs exceed shorts or vice versa. We will look to use this indicator in conjunction with other technical developments to dictate price action over the next 24 hours.

Every day at 16:00 GMT, we analyze potential 24 hour trade set ups. The trade is no longer valid if it is not triggered by 16:00 GMT the next day. Good luck trading!

Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at mwright@fxcm.com

Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical’s, Weekly Spotlight, Intraday Trading, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast

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25 August 2010 16:04 GMT