DailyFX

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 11.23.09

John Kicklighter — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:56:44 GMT

US Dollar Forecast to Remain Range-Bound versus Euro
Euro May Finally See a Breakout Against the Dollar This Week Against
Japanese Yen Breakout Looms in Thin, Risk-Driven Trade
British Pound Outlook Remains Bearish Ahead of UK GDP Revisions
Swiss Franc Looks To Break Range As Growth Fears Rise
Canadian Dollar Tracking its Commodity Compatriots to its Detriment
Australian Dollar Strength May Succumb To Interest Rate Expectations
New Zealand Dollar at Clear Risk as RBNZ Independence Threatened

For detailed analysis by currency pair, please visit our dedicated Forecast Page.

Oil Extends its Pull Back as Risk Aversion Looks to Close the Week

John Kicklighter — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:07:59 GMT

Crude extended the sharp reversal sparked yesterday; but the follow through into Friday’s close was far more tempered. This is consistent with the bigger pattern of price action for the past five weeks.

FX Technical Weekly

Jamie Saettele — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:55:47 GMT

The next US dollar bull leg may be in its early stages. The NZDUSD is the leader, having closed the week 400 pips below its October high. The AUDUSD is testing channel support and could be the next to break.

US Dollar Remains in Downtrend Despite Gains – High Event Risk Next Week

Terri Belkas — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:20:22 GMT

•    British Pound Down as Bank of England Likely to Remain Neutral
•    Euro Gains Amidst Signs European Central Bank May Wind Down Liquidity Programs
•    Japanese Yen Dominates as Equities Fall, Bank of Japan Sees Upside Inflation Risks
•    New Zealand Dollar Down as Currency’s Appreciation Becomes a Political Concern

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:43:57 GMT

Of note in the world of non-USD crosses is the break of trendline resistance in both the EURGBP and EURAUD. The EURNZD may have put in a secondary low also. The bullish Yen scenario (bearish Yen crosses) presented Wednesday is looking more probable.

USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Retail Sales Report

David Song — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:14:56 GMT

Private spending in Canada is expected to improve for the second consecutive month in September, with economists forecasting retail sales to increase 0.6% from the previous month, and the data is likely to encourage an improved outlook for the region as policy makers see the economy emerging from the recession in the third quarter.

A Clear USDCAD Congestion Pattern may be Unsettled by Holiday Trading

John Kicklighter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:35:39 GMT

Large and prominent ranges are a common site across the currency market; but it is this market-wide trend coupled with rising concern over the direction underlying risk appetite may taken in the days and weeks ahead that warrants caution in trading these seemingly benign setups.

EUR/JPY Support Levels Provide Targets For Scalpers

John Rivera — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:25:00 GMT

The EUR/JPY has been under pressure as risk appetite has faded, sparking a flight to safety and broader yen support. The pair has fallen to major support levels which may slow its decline and offer a period of consolidation. The upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday could lead to a week of quiet equity markets which may enhance the pair’s attractiveness as a scalping target.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:40:13 GMT

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:39:57 GMT

Dollar Bull Gets Legs; Buy Dips

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:39:36 GMT

The USD rally is getting legs and much larger moves are expected in the coming weeks. Look to buy the greenback across the board on dips. Levels are clearly defined.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:39:16 GMT

British Pound / US Dollar

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:38:56 GMT

Euro / US Dollar

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:38:13 GMT

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Jamie Saettele — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:37:53 GMT

EUR/USD Remains Range Bound Becoming A Scalping Target

John Rivera — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:34:59 GMT

The EUR/USD continues to see-saw as risk appetite ebbs and flows keeping the pair relatively unchanged over the past ten days. Stocks down on the day have helped the pair erase losses from yesterday. However, the pair continues to see support levels hold keeping the pair within its recent trading range, making it a target for scalpers.

The DailyFX Forex Stream

Thomas Long — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:17:13 GMT

I am frequently asked where to get a live news feed that includes both up-to-date analysis on a variety of financial markets and updates on economic releases. The DailyFX Forex Stream fills both needs.

The Economic Calendar

Thomas Long — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:11:16 GMT

Question: What technical indicator will tell you that a top or bottom is in place?

USD/JPY

Thomas Long — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:48:35 GMT

I went back to see my family in Chicago this past weekend and I was talking to my brother-in-law. He is an engineer for a big manufacturing company who told me that their company has not only brought everybody back from earlier layoffs, but they are also aggressively hiring. Why?

British Pound Fails to Find Support at 20-Day SMA, Euro Maintains Narrow Range

David Song — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:41:02 GMT

The British Pound weakened against the greenback for the fourth day and slipped below the 20-Day SMA (1.6580) to a low 1.6516 during the European trade, and the currency may face increased selling pressures going into the North American session as investors scale back their appetite for risk.

Daily Sound Bites

Joel Kruger and Jonathan Granby — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:33:34 GMT

Oil, Metals Focus on Risk Trends, US Dollar into Week-End

Ilya Spivak — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:32:23 GMT

Oil, gold and silver are set to fall in with broad trends in risk appetite into the end of the trading week with virtually nothing of note on the eonomic or the earnings calendars.

Euro Still Considering Close Below 50-Day SMA

Joel Kruger — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:41:00 GMT

The markets continue to show signs of a potential rolling over as currencies slowly lose their firm hold on the buck and begin to recede on the back of some ongoing concerns over the prospects for the global recovery and downbeat comments from the likes of President Obama, Germany’s Wisemen and US Treasury Geithner, who have all now warned of the risks for a double dip recession.

USDCAD: Long Trade Yields Profits as US Dollar Rebounds

Ilya Spivak — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:43:44 GMT

USDJPY: Prices Inch Lower to Challenge Major Double Bottom

Ilya Spivak — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:36:27 GMT