DailyFX Analyst Picks - Terri Belkas

Staying Short EURJPY

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:46:27 GMT

My short EURJPY position has hit my initial target of the 200 SMA at 132.08. However, I will be holding on to a small short position, with a stop at breakeven, in case we see EURJPY break below 132.00. Potential targets include the 38.2% fib of 112.07-139.21 at 128.95 and the May and July spike lows of 126.90/99.

Staying Short EURJPY

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:24:42 GMT

Staying Short EURJPY

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:37:59 GMT

I'm holding on to a short EURJPY position from Friday with a stop based on an hourly close above 134.65. I'm looking at an initial target of 131.78 (the 200 SMA) but I'm also planning on maintaining a short position in case we see a break below that level. With Fed Chairman Bernanke due to speak at 12:15 ET today, there is ample opportunity to see a break in either direction for the JPY crosses.

Staying Short EURJPY

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:03:02 GMT

My breakout trade for EURJPY from Wednesday was triggered this morning as hourly charts reflected a close below 134.00 at 6:00 ET. I'm using the 200 SMA at 131.70 as an initial target, but I'm also planning on maintaining a short position in case we see a break below that level.

Looking for EURJPY Break, Taking Profit on Long NZDUSD Position

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:42:06 GMT

EURJPY has spent the past few days consolidating below 135.30/50, while a rising trendline has formed support at 133.80/134.00 (drawn from the November lows). This formation signals some breakout potential, and though the series of higher lows suggests the breakout will be to the upside, I'm looking at both sides of the coin. Indeed, I will consider buying EURJPY on an hourly close above 135.35 to target the 2009 highs near 138.00. On the other hand, I will consider selling EURJPY on a close below 134.00 to target the 200 SMA at 131.54.

Meanwhile, I'm taking profit on the previously noted long NZDUSD position as the pair's recent consolidation around 0.7400 signals a lack of momentum to push higher.

Staying Long NZDUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:41:35 GMT

My pick on Friday was to buy a break above 0.7270 or sell a break below 0.7215 in NZDUSD, and the bullish push higher occured at the market open on Sunday following news that the G20 had agreed to maintain their respective economic stimulus measures in an effort to stoke additional global growth. With NZDUSD trading within a large channel formation on the daily charts, I'm looking to hold on to this position for a test of the 2009 highs near 0.7600, and perhaps even a rally toward the upper band of the channel at 0.7765. My stop is below 0.7130.

Looking for Short-Term NZDUSD Break

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:58:49 GMT

NZDUSD is consolidating within a short-term triangle formation, with resistance at 0.7270 and support at 0.7215, and I'm looking to buy a break higher or sell a break lower. That said, with a rising trendline going back to May holding as longer-term support at 0.7115, NZDUSD remains within an uptrend. A drop below there creates more bearish potential.

Long EURCHF

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:42:33 GMT

EURCHF - I'm staying long from 1.5129. Currently, the pair is still holding within a frustrating region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below 1.5100 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

Short AUDUSD, Staying Long EURCHF

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:26:02 GMT

AUDUSD - I'm looking to sell AUDUSD on a test of the European session lows near 0.9100, as I think yesterday's US dollar decline was little more than a temporary correction. Since I didn't take the opportunity to get in earlier, I'd like to hold this position on a longer-term basis, but 0.8865 offers a good shorter-term target, as a rising trendline connecting the April, July, September, and October lows should offer support. My stop will be above today's high of 0.9180.

EURCHF - I'm staying long from 1.5129. Currently, the pair is still holding within a frustrating region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below 1.5100 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

Long EURCHF, Short AUDNZD

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:40:25 GMT

EURCHF - I'm staying long from 1.5129. Currently, the pair is still holding within a frustrating region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below 1.5100 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

Staying Long EURCHF, Short AUDNZD

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:35:15 GMT

EURCHF - I'm staying long from 1.5129. Currently, the pair is still holding within a frustrating region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA at 1.5109, 1.5171, and 1.5154. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below 1.5100 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

Short AUDNZD, Long EURCHF, Long GBPUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:06:00 GMT

AUDNZD - I'm staying short from 1.2389 as the September highs and a falling trendline drawn from the April highs have offered solid resistance near 1.2415. With a stop above the October highs, I'm looking at a few fib-based targets: the 38.2% fib of 1.1930-1.2427 at 1.2238 (already hit), the 50% fib at 1.2179, and the bottom of the pair's falling channel formation at 1.1953.

GBPUSD - Finally, I'm taking a small position in GBPUSD at market (1.6405). The pair has taken a steep hit this morning on the back of disappointing Q3 GDP results, but former resistance (now support) has come into play at 1.6358/1.6400 from a falling trendline drawn from the 7/15/08 high as well as the 100 SMA. My stop is below 1.6350.

Long EURCHF, Short AUDNZD

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:30:42 GMT

Though it's looking a little dicey at this point, I'm staying long EURCHF from 1.5129. Currently, the pair is still holding within a frustrating region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA at 1.5109, 1.5171, and 1.5154. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below 1.5100 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

I also sold AUDNZD late last week at 1.2389 as the September highs and a falling trendline drawn from the April highs have offered solid resistance near 1.2415. With a stop above the October highs, I'm looking at a few fib-based targets: the 38.2% fib of 1.1930-1.2427 at 1.2238, the 50% fib at 1.2179, and the bottom of the pair's falling channel formation at 1.1953.

Long EURCHF, Short AUDNZD, Pending Short GBPUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:00:29 GMT

I'm staying long EURCHF from 1.5129, though the pair has been holding within a frustrating region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA at 1.5106, 1.5172, and 1.5162. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below at 1.5115 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

I also sold AUDNZD on Friday afternoon at 1.2389 as the September highs and a falling trendline drawn from the April highs have offered solid resistance near 1.2415. With a stop above the October highs, I'm looking at a few fib-based targets: the 38.2% fib of 1.1930-1.2427 at 1.2238, the 50% fib at 1.2179, and the 61.8% fib of 1.2121.

Finally, I'm a bit bearish on GBPUSD as the pair continues to hold below falling trendline resistance at 1.6370 and the 100 SMA at 1.6347, but I want to wait for a drop below the 50 SMA at 1.6266 before taking action.

Staying Long EURCHF

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:12:53 GMT

I'm looking to stay long EURCHF from 1.5129, as the pair is showing signs of breaking above a region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA at 1.5099, 1.5170, and 1.5182. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below at 1.5080 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm targeting the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

Staying Long EURCHF

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:10:20 GMT

Staying Long EURCHF

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:34:17 GMT

I'm looking to stay long EURCHF from 1.5129, especially since the pair is showing signs of breaking above a region of congestion marked by the 200 SMA, 100 SMA, and 50 SMA at 1.5099, 1.5170, and 1.5182. Meanwhile, rising trendline support just below at 1.5080 gives us pretty good risk/reward levels, especially since a massive triangle formation (falling trendline 1.5195/1.5200) signals breakout potential. I've placed a stop below the September lows, and I'm looking to target the 50% fib of 1.6827-1.4298 at 1.5561.

Short EURJPY

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 08:42:49 GMT

With US equities coming under pressure this morning, favoring USD and JPY, I'm now short EURJPY with a stop above the overnight highs of 132.01. There are a couple of potential support points we need to keep an eye on though, namely a rising trendline at 130.40, the 9/28 low of 129.78, and the 200 SMA at 129.56. However, with FXCM SSI showing that traders are extremely long USDJPY, the contrarian indicator suggests the JPY crosses may be due for another steep drop, and I'm ultimately looking to target the 50% fib of 112.07-139.21 at 125.72.