DailyFX Analyst Picks - Joel Kruger

SHORT AUD/USD @0.9280

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:39:28 GMT

Remains very well bid on any form of a dip with the underlying structure still grossly constructive. The market has most recently broken to fresh 2009 highs by 0.9405 ahead of the latest minor setbacks. However, given the overbought weekly studies, we are not entirely convinced of the current recovery rally and would not rule out the possibility for a major double top formation with the market seen stalling now above 0.9400 and rolling back over through neckline support at 0.8905. The daily RSI has failed to confirm the latest bout of strength and we look for the latest break back below 0.9210 to help reaffirm our outlook. OPEN OJECTIVE WITH STOP REVISED TO BREAK-EVEN @0.9280.

SHORT EUR/USD @1.4970

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:58:43 GMT

Despite the recent rally on Monday, the market has mostly been well offered since failing to rally to fresh 2009 highs in the previous week beyond 1.5065. We now look for the market to carve a double top with a break back below 1.4625 needed to confirm the bearish formation. Initially, key support comes in be 1.4820, with a break of this level required to accelerate declines. The 50-Day SMA by 1.4785 is also critical, with a close below this medium-term moving average to likely suggest a material shift in the construct of the market. Only back above 1.5065 ultimately negates and gives reason for pause. POSITION: SHORT @1.4970 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.5130.

SHORT AUD/USD @0.9280

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:30:53 GMT

Remains very well bid on any form of a dip with the underlying structure still grossly constructive. The market has most recently broken to fresh 2009 highs by 0.9375 ahead of the latest minor setbacks. However, given the overbought weekly studies, we are not entirely convinced of the current recovery rally and would not rule out the possibility for a major double top formation with the market failing to materially extend gains beyond the previous 0.9330, 2009 peak and rolling back over through neckline support at 0.8905. The daily RSI has failed to confirm the latest bout of strength and we look for the latest break back below 0.9270 on Thursday to help reaffirm our outlook. A short position was triggered on Wednesday at 0.9280. POSITION: SHORT @0.9280 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 0.9410.

SELL AUD/USD @0.9280

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:20:14 GMT

Remains very well bid on any form of a dip with the underlying structure still grossly constructive. The market has most recently broken to fresh 2009 highs beyond 0.9330. However, given the overbought weekly studies, we are not entirely convinced of the current recovery rally and would not rule out the possibility for a major double top formation with the market failing to materially extend gains beyond 0.9330 and rolling back over through neckline support at 0.8905. The daily RSI has failed to confirm the latest bout of strength and we look for a break back below the current daily low at 0.9285 to confirm bias. STRATEGY: SELL @0.9280 (**Market currently above 0.9280; we are looking to sell downside break**) FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 0.9410. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE WILL BE 3X LEVERAGED.

SHORT EUR/USD @1.4970

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:42:57 GMT

Price action has really been testing bears with the market racing through some recent consolidation highs by 1.4915 to trade into the lower 1.5000’s thus far. While a retest of the 1.5060, 2009 highs cannot be ruled out at this point, we still hold onto our bearish view and look for the latest surge to now stall out on a close basis below 1.4970. The 1.4970 level represents the 78.6% fib retracement off of the 1.5060-1.4625 move and could very well stall the current rally in favor of a bearish resumption. Ultimately, only a clear break back above 1.5060 will negate outlook and force re-think. POSITION: SHORT @1.4970 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.5130.

SELL GBP/USD @1.6650

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:22:41 GMT

Is in the process of consolidating the heavy setbacks seen on 23Oct after failing by formidable internal range resistance in the 1.6700 area. Any recovery rallies are now expected to be well capped in the 1.6500-6600’s, with a lower top sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension through next key support at 1.6240. Using a daily ATR (Average True Range) analysis, we project a potential high by 1.6655 today which we will be happy to sell into. Look for a break below initial support at 1.6400 to accelerate. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6650 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6810. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NEW YORK CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY.

BUY EUR/AUD @1.6355

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:03:00 GMT

We like the idea of attempting to establish a long position on the cross should the market be able to recover off of the sub-1.6300 Wednesday lows. The weekly chart is very compelling and shows the market in the process of potentially carving out a major base. A bullish hammer close two-weeks back was followed by a strong bullish reversal candle in the previous week, which has ended a sequence of consecutive weekly lower highs. If the market can manage a recovery into the US session back above 1.6300, we will look to buy a break back above 1.6350. STRATEGY: BUY @1.6355 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6240. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE WILL EQUAL 3X EQUITY.

SHORT AUD/USD @0.9105

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:23:14 GMT

The market could finally be showing signs of exhaustion, with the daily chart rolling over and contemplating a short-term top at 0.9330. Tuesday’s break below 0.9110 was significant and now strengthens bearish case, with the market ending a sequence of consecutive higher lows and in position to carve out a bearish reversal week. The weekly RSI is still well above 70 and confirms need for a healthy corrective pullback over the coming days/weeks. Look for a lower top to carve out below 0.9330 ahead of a fresh drop back through Thursday’s 0.8935 lows. POSITION: SHORT @0.9105 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 0.9205.

SELL GBP/USD @1.6525

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:34:40 GMT

Is in the process of consolidating the heavy setbacks seen in the previous week after failing by formidable internal range resistance in the 1.6700 area. Any recovery rallies are now expected to be well capped above 1.6500, with a lower top sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension through next key support at 1.6240. A closer look at the hourly chart shows a formidable technical confluence of resistance by 1.6525, with the 61.8% fib retracement off of the most recent move, previous support/congestion from 22Oct, an ATR projected high, and some rising short-term trend-line resistance all coinciding by the psychological barrier. There is also the potential for the formation of an hourly h&s top with the market potentially in the process of carving out the right shoulder ahead of an eventual break below neckline support at 1.6240. Ultimately, only back above 1.6700 negates and gives reason for pause. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6525 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6725. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

Buy USD/JPY @90.55

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:03:43 GMT

The latest rally has stalled out just shy of our initial target at 92.55 with the market well capped by the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Daily studies do however still show plenty of room to run, and we maintain our constructive outlook since the pair based out by 88.00. Weekly charts confirm, and a higher low is now sought above 90.05, to be confirmed on an eventual break back above 92.55. Ideally, the higher low is now sought out by the 20-Day SMA at 90.50 which acts as former resistance now turned support. A close back under 90.05 however, will negate and put pressure back on downside. STRATEGY: BUY @90.55 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 89.55. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

SHORT EUR/USD FROM 1.5010

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:54:59 GMT

(Existing Short) - While the recent pullback has dented the intense market rally of the past several weeks, the overriding trend is still intensely bullish and needs to be tested more for there to be an official shift in the short-term structure. The key level to watch below comes in by 1.4830, with a break of this level required at a minimum to accelerate declines and suggest that a meaningful top is in place. Monday’s pullbacks stalled just shy of this level ahead of the latest bounce. Our model has been short the market from 1.5010 and we will look for a lower top to carve out on Tuesday at or below 1.4975 ahead of the much anticipated break of 1.4830. The close below the 10-Day SMA on Monday is a start, and we are now looking for the break below 1.4830 to reaffirm. Back above 1.5000 concerns, while beyond 1.5065 negates.

Sell EUR/JPY @139.00

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 11:09:45 GMT

(Revised from Friday): Any attempts to top out over the past several days have been met with solid buying into the close to instead result in some impressive gains. The key level to watch above comes in by 139.00 which coincides with some recent range highs over the past few months (see 5June/7Aug highs). However, any additional gains should be limited from there,with daily studies showing overbought after the RSI has crossed above 70. Near-term support comes in by 137.20, with a break back below this level to confirm exhausted outlook.

We have revised our sell recommendation from Friday and will look to sell by 139.00 on Monday in anticipation of yet another topside failure by the range highs that have capped over the past several months. Stop in place at 140.60, with an OPEN objective. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY Close (5pm) on Monday. Position size should be 3x equity.

SELL EUR/JPY

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:48:44 GMT

Any attempts to top out over the past several days have been met with solid buying into the close to instead result in some bullish consolidation now confirmed following Wednesday’s upside break. The key level to watch above comes in by 139.00 which coincides with some recent range highs over the past few months (see 5June/7Aug highs). However, any additional gains should be limited from there, with daily studies showing overbought after the RSI has crossed above 70. Near-term support comes in by 136.25, with a break back below this level to confirm exhausted outlook. We have issued a sell recommendation for Friday by 138.50 in anticipation of yet another topside failure by the range highs that have capped over the past several months. Stop in place at 140.10, with an OPEN objective. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON FRIDAY.

SELL EUR/JPY

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:25:50 GMT

Sell Gbp/Jpy @153.05; Stop 154.55; Open Target

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:05:51 GMT

The rally continues into Thursday with gains extending to 152.00 thus far. Daily studies still show room to run, but additional gains are now seen stalling out by next key resistance in the 153.10-30 area (100-Day SMA/7Sep high). We are not sure that the market will get there today, but if it does by chance continue to rally up through 153.00 to test the 100-Day SMA, we will be waiting and will happily establish a short position in anticipation of a sharp pullback. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NEW YORK CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY. SUGGESTED POSITION SIZE = 3X EQUITY.

Sell Eur/Usd @1.5010; Stop 1.5110; Open Objective

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:38:43 GMT

Sticking with Tuesday’s Trade But Lowering Entry....We are now not so sure that the 1.5000 barrier will be tested but like the idea of fading any rallies above the barrier today. With daily studies overbought and in need of a healthy corrective pullback, taking shots to sell the major on overextended intraday moves is the preferred strategy. While there is scope for a push over the coming days to test the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 2008 high-low by 1.5240, we do not see this level being close to challenged on Wednesday. Instead, we will take the chance that gains will stall out after officially clearing 1.5000 ahead of a major pullback. The daily ATR for the pair is 120 points which at present would project a potential daily high by 1.5010. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NEW YORK CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

Sell Eur/Usd @1.5070; Stop 1.5170; Open Objective

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:31:33 GMT

We are fairly confident that 1.5000 will be taken out on Tuesday but also like the idea of fading any rallies towards 1.5100. With daily studies overbought and in need of a healthy corrective pullback, taking shots to sell the major on overextended intraday moves is the preferred strategy. While there is scope for a push over the coming days to test the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 2008 high-low by 1.5240, we do not see this level being close to challenged on Tuesday. Instead, we will take the chance that gains could stall out ahead of the 78.6% by 1.5070 ahead of a major pullback. The daily ATR for the pair is 120 points which at present would project a potential daily high by 1.5070. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NEW YORK CLOSE (5PM ET) ON TUESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

Sell Nzd/Usd @0.7510; Target OPEN; Stop 0.7660

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:28:07 GMT

The market is stretched both on the daily and weekly chart and with the price testing the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 2008 high-lows, also at 0.7500, we like the idea of selling the psychological barrier. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY Close on Monday.

Sell Eur/Usd @1.5035 for an OPEN Objective; Stop 1.5135

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:52:07 GMT

Fresh 2009 highs being made on Thursday with the market ready to test the critical psychological barriers by 1.5000. While there is now the potential for gains to extend beyond 1.5000 towards the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 2008 high-lows in the 1.5200’s, we like the idea of looking to sell a failure above 1.5000 today in anticipation of a short-term corrective pullback. We look for the market to take out 1.5000 today and run up before eventually stalling out by 1.5040. Our ATR analysis shows a potential high by 1.5040 and as such, we will place a sell order just ahead of this level at 1.5035. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NEW YORK CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

Sell Eur/Usd @1.4700 for an Open Objective; Stop 1.4855 (No Yen Trades)

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 08:39:51 GMT

Setbacks appear to have stalled for now by the 20-Day SMA, with the market rebounding marginally on Wednesday thus far. However, we continue to contend that a short-term top is in place at a minimum, in favor of some deeper setbacks over the coming days to the 1.4400-1.4465 area. Ultimately, any rallies on Wednesday should be well capped by 1.4700 (projected ATR high and 10-Day SMA), with only a break back above 1.4730 giving reason for concern. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDENSDAY.