DailyFX Analyst Picks - Joel Kruger

BUY EUR/CHF @1.4490

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 10:08:32 GMT

The cross has fallen off of a cliff over the past few weeks with the market in a freefall and now looking to test critical psychological barriers by 1.4500. Weekly and daily studies are now highly oversold and the market is in desperate need for some corrective relief. Previous tests of support by 1.4500 have often been met with some very solid buying, and we would look for this barrier to once again act as a formidable support on dips. While we would not rule out the possibility for a break below these barriers on Wednesday, we will happily wait to buy the dip below the figure in anticipation of a major bounce. STRATEGY: BUY @1.4490 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4420. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

BUY EUR/CHF @1.4490

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 10:59:45 GMT

The cross has fallen off of a cliff over the past few weeks with the market in a freefall and now looking to test critical psychological barriers by 1.4500. Weekly and daily studies are now highly oversold and the market is in desperate need for some corrective relief. Previous tests of support by 1.4500 have often been met with some very solid buying, and we would look for this barrier to once again act as a formidable support on dips. While we would not rule out the possibility for a break below these barriers on Tuesday, we will happily wait to buy the dip below the figure in anticipation of a major bounce. STRATEGY: BUY @1.4490 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4420. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON TUESDAY). POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

LONG GBP/JPY @133.80

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:08:34 GMT

Very tough to ignore a currency that has been so beaten down and that pays a nice positive carry. The cross has dropped sharply by more than 10 big figures over the past 2 weeks and with daily studies so overextended, we like the idea of our newly established long position following the break back above Tuesday’s high. The break above Tuesday’s high marks an end to a series of 9 consecutive daily lower highs, and 9 consecutive negative closes. The drop of 9 days also coincided with a fibonacci time sequence that would also suggest that the market pullback has stalled for now. POSITION: LONG @133.80 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 131.80.

BUY GBP/JPY @133.80

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 08:20:09 GMT

Very tough to ignore a currency that has been so beaten down and that pays a nice positive carry. The cross has dropped sharply by more than 10 big figures over the past 2 weeks and with daily studies so overextended, we like the idea of establishing a long position on a break back above Tuesday’s high. A break back above Tuesday’s high will mark an end to a series of 9 consecutive daily lower highs, and should also mark an end to a series of 9 consecutive negative closes, pending a positive close on Wednesday. The drop of 9 days also coincides with a fibonacci time sequence that would also suggest that the market pullback has stalled for now. STRATEGY: BUY @133.80 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 131.80. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

LONG GBP/AUD @1.6650

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:53:11 GMT

Unfortunately we were railroaded on our short Eur/Gbp position from 0.9025 this morning. However, technical studies in Sterling on the crosses should not be ignored and we have now established a fresh long position on this cross with the market at multi-year lows and severley oversold. We are already long Eur/Aud and Eur/Cad with buy and hold positions, and we will take the same approach here with leverage of 5x. POSITION: LONG @1.6650 FOR OPEN OBJECTIVE.

BUY EUR/SEK @9.6650

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:05:09 GMT

One of the few cross currencies that are so stretched at present and with the daily RSI well below 30, we like the idea of looking to build a long position a little lower down. The market is now at its lowest levels since 2008 and is fast approaching a retest of critical longer-term former resistance now turned support by 9.6600 from November 2005. As such, we see the 9.6600 area as stalling additional setbacks at a minimum, ahead of a much needed and healthy corrective bounce, that could even develop into a more meaningful medium-term base. STRATEGY: BUY AT 9.6650 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 9.5650. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON FRIDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

BUY GBP/AUD @1.7055

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:03:14 GMT

A fresh 25-Year low now puts the monthly RSI below 30, and at current levels, a major upside correction is sure to unfold. Shorter-term and medium-term technical studies also confirm the need for a bounce, which at a minimum should produce a 10 big figure jump bacK towards 1.8000. The projected ATR low for the cross comes in by 1.7050 on Tuesday, and as such, we will look to take advantage of the current dip to establish a very playable counter-trend position. STRATEGY: BUY @1.7055 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6925. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

BUY EUR/AUD @1.5175

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 08:53:33 GMT

Technical Catalyst: A string of nine consecutive negative closes (Fibonacci sequence) has now been compromised with a doji close on Thursday, and this could very well be suggestive of the early formation of a long awaited and much needed base. Daily studies are deeply oversold, while weekly studies also look exhausted. This in conjunction with a market that now trades at over 10 year lows and by a longer-term cyclical bottom, strengthens the prospects for a major upside reversal in the near-term. Thursday’s high comes in by 1.5170 and we will look to take advantage of the anticipated trend reversal by buying a break of this high.

Fundamental Catalyst: The recent announcement from the Fed has put a serious dent in investor sentiment, and in turn has weighed heavily on global risk appetite. As things correlate, this should start to put some pressure on the higher yielding currencies as market participants look to exit their riskier positions in favor of a flight to lower yielding plays. We are fully aware of the risk associated with the Euro at present, but also believe that any fears in the Eurozone related to Greece, Portugal and Spain are overdone, with the Euro to likely benefit on this cross as price action normalizes and more accurately reflect fundamentals. Traditionally, any pressure on global equities results in a higher cross rate, and we contend that this sets up an opportunity to participate in a very compelling long trade.

STRATEGY: BUY @1.5175 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.5045. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON FRIDAY. 5X LEVERAGED.

BUY EUR/AUD @1.5010

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:38:51 GMT

While it is difficult to determine from a short-term perspective at one point things will stall out, it is also quite clear that the market is now by some major cyclical longer-term lows with daily, weekly and monthly studies all now warning of a major move to the upside. Critical psychological barriers are fast approaching by 1.5000, and as such, we would not rule out a test of this level. However, any additional setbacks below this barrier are seen limited, with the more likely scenerio favoring a massive bout of profit taking at the figure. We will therefore look to establish a long position by 1.5000 and will not confine ourselves to a hard stop-loss, instead deferring to a longer-term strategic strategy play. STRATEGY: BUY @1.5010 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

LONG EUR/CAD @1.4350

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 08:58:04 GMT

The cross has pretty much been in decline now for three weeks and daily studies are looking very stretched with the market reaching its lowest levels in two years. Any additional setbacks from here are now seen limited, with the more likely outcome to result in a short- term corrective bounce back above 1.5000. POSITION: LONG @1.4350 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4190.

LONG EUR/AUD @1.5525; LONG EUR/CAD 1.4510

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 13:12:29 GMT

The market has retraced sharply in early trade on Thursday, with the cross collapsing in a matter of hours all the way back to the 78.6% fib retrace off of the recent 1.5415-1.5955 move. However, any additional setbacks from here are seen limited, with our core bias favoring the formation of a major base at current levels, given the overextended longer-term cyclicals. As such, we are looking to take advantage of these sharp pullbacks in anticipation of the decline being very short-lived and potentially the last shot to establish a very compelling position so close to what could be a long-term low at 1.5415. POSITION: LONG @1.5525 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.5325. POSITION SIZE IS 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

LONG EUR/CAD POSITION ALSO TAKEN ON THURSDAY AT 1.4510 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4360.

BUY GBP/USD @1.5490

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:12:08 GMT

The market has been in a freefall for the past several days, and although key support by 1.5700 has now been cleared, we can not ignore oversold inter-day readings which have the daily RSI well below 30. Next key support now comes in by psychological barriers at 1.5500, and while we do see this level potentially being taken out over the coming hours, any additional setbacks are seen limited in favor of a major short-term corrective rebound back towards 1.6000 in the days ahead. STRATEGY: BUY @1.5490 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.5390. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON TUESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

BUY EUR/CAD @1.4540

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 07:45:41 GMT

The cross has pretty much been in decline now for ten consecutive days and daily studies are looking very stretched with the market reaching its lowest levels in two years. Any additional setbacks from here are now seen limited, with the more likely outcome to result in a short- term corrective bounce back above 1.5000. A closer look at the components shows a daily RSI in Eur/Usd well below 30, while the Usd/Cad RSI isn’t even close to 70 at this point. As such, we like the idea of buying into a dip on Monday in anticipation of the anticipated corrective bounce. STRATEGY: BUY @1.4540 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4390. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON MONDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

BUY EUR/USD @1.3510

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 10:46:51 GMT

The objective from the 1.4200-1.4600 consolidation break has now been exceeded, with the market dropping sharply into the 1.3600’s ahead of the latest minor bounce. While our core view continues to favor additional downside, short-term technical studies are now severely oversold and warrant a much needed and healthy corrective bounce. As such, we will not be afraid to take another shot (stopped out on Thursday for 100 points) and look to buy into another severe dip on Friday in anticipation of said correction. STRATEGY: BUY @1.3510 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.3390. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON FRIDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 5X EQUITY.

BUY EUR/USD @1.3790

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:45:54 GMT

The objective from the 1.4200-1.4600 consolidation break is now being tested, with the market dropping into the 1.3800’s thus far. However, while our core view continues to favor additional downside, short-term technical studies are now oversold and warrant a much needed and healthy corrective bounce. Any additional declines on Thursday should be very well supported on a dip below the 1.3800 figure, and as such, we will look to establish a very playable counter-trend long in anticipation of some major corrective relief. STRATEGY: BUY @1.3790 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.3690. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X TOTAL EQUITY.

SELL EUR/USD @1.4060

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 11:12:05 GMT

The objective from the 1.4200-1.4600 consolidation break has now been reached, with the market dropping sharply into the 1.3800’s on Friday ahead of the latest minor bounce. While our core view continues to favor additional downside, short-term technical studies are now oversold and warrant a much needed and healthy corrective bounce. At a minimum, look for a push back into the mid-1.4000’s before considering the potential for a bearish resumption. Next major support comes in by 1.3745, the June 2009 lows, with shorter-term support now at 1.3850. STRATEGY: SELL @1.4060 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4210. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

SELL USD/CAD @1.0770

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:46:07 GMT

The latest sharp rally has so far stalled out just ahead of medium-term resistance at 1.0745. However, daily studies still show room to run and we look for additional upside over the coming session beyond this critical medium-term resistance before considering the strong potential for a healthy and necessary corrective pullback. Once 1.0745 is cleared, any acceleration beyond is seen limited, and as such, we will look to sell into a failure ahead of 1.0800 on Monday. STRATEGY: SELL @1.0770 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.0870. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON MONDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

BUY EUR/AUD @1.5495

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 10:12:50 GMT

We continue to look for opportunities to buy the cross on dips as the market appears to be overextended on a short-term and medium-term basis. Despite the latest intraday setbacks, we believe that the 1.5415 yearly/multi-year low should remain intact, with the hourly chart showing the potential formation of the right shoulder of a major inverse head & shoulders pattern. As such, we will look to establish a playable long trade on a test of the 78.6% fib retrace off of the latest moves which comes in just under 1.550. STRATEGY: BUY @1.5495 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.5345. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

BUY USD/JPY @88.30

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 06:14:17 GMT

The measured move objective off of the double top triggered on the break below neckline support at 91.25 has now been reached and although the overall trend appears to be grossly bearish at present, shorter-term technicals are starting to look a little stretched and could potentially be warning of an upside reversal over the coming sessions. At present, we see the risk for a break below 89.00 and into the 88.00’s. However, any setbacks beyond 88.30 are seen limited with the level coinciding with the 61.8% fib retracement off of the November-January move. Setbacks were also very well supported in the 88.00 area back in the Fall of 2009 and as such, we will look to take advantage of a dip into the lower 88’s to establish a fresh long position. STRATEGY: BUY @88.30 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 87.30. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

SELL EUR/USD @1.4260

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 07:26:10 GMT

A multi-day bearish consolidation has been broken, and more importantly, the market has finally broken below the 200-Day SMA to highlight what we contend to be a significant shift in the broader structure, which now favors additional USD strength over the medium-term. The consolidation high-lows had been roughly defined between 1.4200-1.4600, and we therefore look for the current down-leg to extend into the 1.3800’s over the coming days. However, given the extent of the latest drop, we would not rule out the possibility for a short-term corrective bounce towards 1.4250-1.4300 before considering bear trend resumption. Friday’s bullish reversal day reaffirms our short-term bullish outlook, but any rallies towards 1.4300 should be sold. STRATEGY: SELL @1.4260 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.4420. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5pm ET) ON MONDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

BUY EUR/AUD @1.5510

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 08:17:11 GMT

Although we were stopped for a loss earlier in the week, we still remain highly bullish at current levels, with the market trading at what appears to be a discount given longer-term technical studies. Weekly studies are oversold and we expect to see a major bounce over the near-term, which ultimately will set up a major base and open some significant upside over the coming weeks and months. While a sell-off in the USD on Friday does not favor a higher cross rate, we do not expect the USD selling to persist and would use any cross weakness resulting from broad based USD selling as an excellent opportunity to re-establish a long position. STRATEGY: BUY @1.5510 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.5360. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON FRIDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

SELL GBP/USD @1.6480

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 06:11:45 GMT

The current rally in the pair is still classed as corrective with the market triggering a minor double bottom on the daily chart that could project gains up to the 1.6500 area before the market stalls out and carves a fresh lower top. Ultimately, we do not see any gains extending much beyond 1.6500 and recommend looking to build a short position on approach to the psychological barrier. The 61.8% fib retracement off of the November-December high-lows comes in just ahead of 1.6500, and we will use this level as our sell entry. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6480 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6630. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON TUESDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

SIDELINED

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 13:20:55 GMT

Lightened US holiday trade and quiet economic calendar should keep things quiet on Monday.

BUY EUR/CAD @1.4715

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 10:45:14 GMT

We took advantage of buying a very oversold cross rate last Friday, and will once again look to take advantage of a still overdone cross rate following the latest dip back towards the multi-month lows. Longer-term studies show the market very well supported in the 1.4600-1.4700 area and any pullback to retest the recent 1.4730 lows should result in yet another sharp upside reversal. We favor the current pullback potentially exceeding 1.4730 towards the figure before sharply reversing course to set up a short-term double bottom scenario on the daily chart. Neckline resistance would come in by 1.5085, with an eventual break above this level then opening additional upside into the 1.5400’s. STRATEGY: BUY @1.4715 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4565. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON FRIDAY. 3X LEVERAGED.

LONG EUR/CHF @1.4775

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 15:09:38 GMT

The latest close below critical psychological barriers at 1.5000 is significant and indicative of a shift in the medium-term structure for the cross. Look for deeper setbacks over the coming weeks back towards the 2009 lows from March at 1.4580. Daily studies are however severely oversold and we would not rule out the potential for a short-term corrective bounce back towards previous support now turned resistance at 1.5000-1.5050 before a resumption of weakness. Position: LONG EUR/CHF @1.4775 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4685.