DailyFX - Analyst Picks - Joel Kruger

Long EUR/GBP

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Wed, 16 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

This trade has not been kind and we are hanging on by a thread after the market traded down towards our stop-loss level. However, daily studies remain highly oversold and we still expect a bounce over the coming sessions. Unfortunately, we will exit the trade on a daily close below 0.7950. A close back above 0.8015 on Wednesday would be encouraging.

Long EUR/GBP

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Mon, 14 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The cross rate has now accelerated to fresh yearly and multi-month lows, leaving daily studies well oversold and in serious need of a major corrective bounce. In the previous week, we had warned of the potential for another drop down towards the 2010 base by 0.8060, but also said that we would be looking to buy on a dip once this level was broken. The latest downside break has finally cleared 0.8060, and we will look to take advantage of the pullback. There is also now a good deal of previous resistance turned support at current levels, with some consolidation and congestion from back in 2008 likely to prop for the time being. The daily RSI is correcting from dramatically oversold territory, and we like the idea of the fresh long in favor of a significant bounce over the coming sessions. POSITION: LONG AT 0.8050 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP ONLY ON A DAILY CLOSE BELOW 0.7950.

Long EUR/GBP

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Fri, 11 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The cross rate has now accelerated to fresh yearly and multi-month lows, leaving daily studies well oversold and in serious need of a major corrective bounce. In the previous week, we had warned of the potential for another drop down towards the 2010 base by 0.8060, but also said that we would be looking to buy on a dip once this level was broken. The latest downside break has finally cleared 0.8060, and we will look to take advantage of the pullback. There is also now a good deal of previous resistance turned support at current levels, with some consolidation and congestion from back in 2008 likely to prop for the time being. The daily RSI tracks down by 20 and is dramatically oversold, and we like the idea of the fresh long in favor of a significant bounce over the coming sessions. POSITION: LONG AT 0.8050 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP ONLY ON A DAILY CLOSE BELOW 0.7950.

Long EUR/GBP

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Thu, 10 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The cross rate has now accelerated to fresh yearly and multi-month lows, leaving daily studies well oversold and in serious need of a major corrective bounce. In the previous week, we had warned of the potential for another drop down towards the 2010 base by 0.8060, but also said that we would be looking to buy on a dip once this level was broken. The latest downside break has finally broken below 0.8060, and we will look to take advantage of the pullback. There is also now a good deal of previous resistance turned support at current levels, with some consolidation and congestion from back in 2008 likely to prop for the time being. The daily RSI tracks down by 20 and is dramatically oversold, and we like the idea of the fresh long in favor of a significant bounce over the coming sessions. POSITION: LONG AT 0.8050 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP ONLY ON A DAILY CLOSE BELOW 0.7950.

Long EUR/GBP

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Wed, 09 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The cross rate has now accelerated to fresh yearly and multi-month lows, leaving daily studies well oversold and in serious need of a major corrective bounce. In the previous week, we had warned of the potential for another drop down towards the 2010 base by 0.8060, but also said that we would be looking to buy on a dip once this level was broken. The latest downside break on Monday has finally broken below 0.8060, and we will look to take advantage of the pullback. There is also now a good deal of previous resistance turned support at current levels, with some consolidation and congestion from back in 2008 likely to prop for the time being. The daily RSI tracks down by 20 and is dramatically oversold, and we like the idea of the fresh long in favor of a significant bounce over the coming sessions. Throw in the UK market closure on Monday, and it seems like this market may have been sold a little too aggressively. POSITION: LONG AT 0.8050 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP ONLY ON A DAILY CLOSE BELOW 0.7950.

Long EUR/GBP

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Tue, 08 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The cross rate has now accelerated to fresh yearly and multi-month lows, leaving daily studies well oversold and in serious need of a major corrective bounce. In the previous week, we had warned of the potential for another drop down towards the 2010 base by 0.8060, but also said that we would be looking to buy on a dip once this level was broken. The latest downside break on Monday has finally broken below 0.8060, and we will look to take advantage of the pullback. There is also now a good deal of previous resistance turned support at current levels, with some consolidation and congestion from back in 2008 likely to prop for the time being. The daily RSI tracks down by 20 and is dramatically oversold, and we like the idea of the fresh long in favor of a significant bounce over the coming sessions. Throw in the UK market closure on Monday, and it seems like this market may have been sold a little too aggressively. POSITION: LONG AT 0.8050 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP ONLY ON A DAILY CLOSE BELOW 0.7950.

Looking to Buy USD/JPY

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Fri, 04 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Right now, our in-house model is keeping us on the sidelines, but we very much like the idea of looking to buy this pair either on an upside break or into a deeper setback. Overall, this is a market that looks to be on the verge of a major structural shift since basing by record lows in the Fall of 2011, and the pair looks like it is attempting to find a fresh higher low above 75.55 ahead of the next major upside extension back through 84.20. As such, we recommend looking to either buy a dip to 78.50, or on a daily close back above 81.00. Look to hold long-term for a move to the 92.00 area. Only exit below 75.00.

Looking to Sell EUR/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Although the latest rally has been impressive, we contend the market is still locked within a more well defined medium to longer-term downtrend off of the 2008 record highs, and as such, looking to sell rallies in 2012 is the preferred strategy. The rally has now extended beyond 1.3200 and from here we see scope for additional upside towards 1.3300. However, once the 1.3300 level is tested, there is a very compelling technical argument to be made for a bearish resumption. A closer look at the 1.3300 level shows a confluence of resistance which includes the obvious psychological barrier itself, some falling trend-line resistance off of the February 2012 peak, the upper bollinger band, and a very attractive 78.6% fib retrace off of the most recent March-April, 1.34400-1.3000 high-low move. As such, we really like the idea of fading the strength to this area if it is tested today and will place our entry just over 1.3300. (This is also contingent on our in-house risk management system approving the trade) STRATEGY: SELL AT 1.3350 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP-LOSS ONLY ON ANY DAILY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME) ABOVE 1.3500.

Looking to Sell EUR/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Although the latest rally has been impressive, we contend the market is still locked within a more well defined medium to longer-term downtrend off of the 2008 record highs, and as such, looking to sell rallies in 2012 is the preferred strategy. The rally has now extended beyond 1.3200 and from here we see scope for additional upside towards 1.3300. However, once the 1.3300 level is tested, there is a very compelling technical argument to be made for a bearish resumption. A closer look at the 1.3300 level shows a confluence of resistance which includes the obvious psychological barrier itself, some falling trend-line resistance off of the February 2012 peak, the upper bollinger band, and a very attractive 78.6% fib retrace off of the most recent March-April, 1.34400-1.3000 high-low move. As such, we really like the idea of fading the strength to this area if it is tested today and will place our entry just over 1.3300. (This is also contingent on our in-house risk management system approving the trade) STRATEGY: SELL AT 1.3310 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP-LOSS ONLY ON ANY DAILY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME) ABOVE 1.3410 (PREVIOUS LOWER TOP/MARCH PEAK).

Looking to Sell EUR/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Although the latest rally has been impressive, we contend the market is still locked within a more well defined medium to longer-term downtrend off of the 2008 record highs, and as such, looking to sell rallies in 2012 is the preferred strategy. The rally has now extended beyond 1.3200 and from here we see scope for additional upside towards 1.3300. However, once the 1.3300 level is tested, there is a very compelling technical argument to be made for a bearish resumption. A closer look at the 1.3300 level shows a confluence of resistance which includes the obvious psychological barrier itself, some falling trend-line resistance off of the February 2012 peak, the upper bollinger band, and a very attractive 78.6% fib retrace off of the most recent March-April, 1.34400-1.3000 high-low move. As such, we really like the idea of fading the strength to this area if it is tested today and will place our entry just over 1.3300. STRATEGY: SELL AT 1.3310 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP-LOSS ONLY ON ANY DAILY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME) ABOVE 1.3410 (PREVIOUS LOWER TOP/MARCH PEAK).

Looking to Sell GBP/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The market has recently broken to fresh 2012 highs beyond 1.6000 and this now likely opens additional upside back towards the October 2011 peak by 1.6165 further up. While our core bias remains bearish, we will stand aside and look for opportunities to sell into rallies above 1.6200 in anticipation of an eventual bearish resumption. A break and close back below 1.6000 is now required to alleviate immediate topside pressures. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6210 FOR A 1.5800 OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6410.

Looking to Sell GBP/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Looking to Sell GBP/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

We continue to keep a close watch on this cross and recommend looking to buy on a break above 1.2050. This market has been locked in a very tight consolidation between 1.2000-1.2050 and a push beyond 1.2050 will end consolidative trade and open a fresh upside extension.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Looking to Buy USD/JPY

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 11:04:00 GMT

We believe that this market is now in the early stages of a more meaningful longer-term uptrend and as such, the latest pullback from the 84.20, 2012 highs is only corrective. The market is now testing some key Ichomoku support both on the daily and weekly, so any additional declines are limited in favor of the formation of the next medium-term higher low. We like building longs around 80.00 and only below 78.00 would concern.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

We don’t usually incorporate fundamentals into our trade ideas but it is hard to ignore the very well publicized SNB 1.2000 floor on the cross and ability for the market to remain so well supported by the barrier. Still, the market is technically in the process of carving a major bottom on the longer-term chart, and we continue to project additional upside from here. Favorable yield differentials also don’t hurt and we look for a break back above 1.2050 to confirm and likely accelerate gains further up. Ultimately, only a daily close below 1.1900 negates.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The market remains supported for the time being around the critical 1.2000 psychological barrier and although we can't be certain that we won't soon see a breakdown below the level, we also like the idea of buying the cross on a break of recent range highs by 1.2040 should the market manage to hold. Look to buy at 1.2050 for an open objective with a stop-loss by 1.1975.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

We don’t usually incorporate fundamentals into our trade ideas but it is hard to ignore the very well publicized SNB 1.2000 floor on the cross and ability for the market to remain so well supported ahead of the barrier. Still, the market is technically in the process of carving a major bottom on the longer-term chart, and we continue to project additional upside from here. Favorable yield differentials also don’t hurt and we look for the current test of the 1.2000 barrier to more or less be well defended ahead of the next major upside extension. Dips below 1.200 should therefore be nothing more than an exercise in stop hunting and buying towards 1.1950 is certainly a good countertrend strategy.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

We don’t usually incorporate fundamentals into our trade ideas but it is hard to ignore the very well publicized SNB 1.2000 floor on the cross and ability for the market to remain so well supported ahead of the barrier. Still, the market is technically in the process of carving a major bottom on the longer-term chart, and we continue to project additional upside from here. Favorable yield differentials also don’t hurt and we look for a test of the 1.2000 barrier or break back above 1.2100 to establish a fresh long-position. Ultimately, only a daily close below 1.1900 would negate.

Looking to Sell GBP/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

The market has recently broken to fresh 2012 highs beyond 1.6000 and this now likely opens additional upside back towards the October 2011 peak by 1.6170 further up. While our core bias remains bearish, we will stand aside and look for opportunities to sell into rallies towards 1.6200 in anticipation of an eventual bearish resumption. A break and close back below 1.5945 now required to alleviate immediate topside pressures. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6210 FOR A 1.5800 OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6410.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 11:01:00 GMT

We don’t usually incorporate fundamentals into our trade ideas but it is hard to ignore the very well publicized SNB 1.2000 floor on the cross and ability for the market to remain so well supported ahead of the barrier. Still, the market is technically in the process of carving a major bottom on the longer-term chart, and we continue to project additional upside from here. Favorable yield differentials also don’t hurt and we look for a break back above 1.2100 to confirm and accelerate gains towards 1.2500 further up. Below 1.2000 negates.

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 11:01:00 GMT

We don’t usually incorporate fundamentals into our trade ideas but it is hard to ignore the very well publicized SNB 1.2000 floor on the cross and ability for the market to remain so well supported ahead of the barrier. Still, the market is technically in the process of carving a major bottom on the longer-term chart, and we continue to project additional upside from here. Favorable yield differentials also don’t hurt and we look for a break back above 1.2100 to confirm and accelerate gains towards 1.2500 further up. Below 1.2000 negates.