DailyFX - Analyst Picks - Jamie Saettele

Jamie’s Pick: 05/14/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 14 May 2012 13:43:00 GMT

The global growth slowdown trade continues to work. Crude and copper are off 2% to start the week while the USD and JPY are up. The next level of interest for crude is a November pivot below 9100. Copper is trading at its lowest level since January and the 2012 low at 3.3925 is significant. Expect a free fall type decline if that level gives way. The same can be said for gold and its December low.

As for the AUDUSD short, price is testing a confluence of channel and trendline support. I continue to look towards 9861 as long as price is below last night’s high (10040). Exceeding that level would shift focus to 10090. Regarding timing, an early week ‘flush’ lower would allow for us to cover and return short on a bounce. Again, 9840/60 is what I am looking for, maybe tonight on RBA May minutes?

If you want to learn more about specific timing strategies (opening range for example) and my trading, then join my next week for a trading bootcamp.

Jamie’s Pick: 05/11/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Fri, 11 May 2012 13:44:00 GMT

I maintain that the best way to play the global slowdown is through the AUDUSD. I’m looking lower today towards 9975 and 9860 as long as price is below last night’s high (10090). Exceeding that level puts 10145, 10165, and even 10225 back in play as resistance early next week. The AUDCAD is the biggest loser today on the back of CAD jobs but underlying macro trends are likely to win out and support USDCAD over time. On that note, USDCAD support is expected from 9900-9930. AUDJPY is a candidate of course but I’d rather not deal with the intervention headache that comes with owning JPY.

Jamie’s Pick: 05/10/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 10 May 2012 14:09:00 GMT

Most of the AUDUSD short was exited last night on the break above the Asian opening range. It was the first time that price had held and broken above the Asian opening range since May 4th. Price has entered the 10135/65 resistance zone (5 day average and short term pivot on Tuesday) mentioned last night on Twitter. Keep an eye on resistance in the AUDNZD (12890) and the S&P (1370/75 for e-mini) for help in position sizing and timing the AUDUSD. 9975 and 9860 are the next bearish objectives.

If you want to learn more about specific timing strategies (opening range for example) and my trading, then join my next week for a trading bootcamp.

Jamie’s Pick: 05/08/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 08 May 2012 13:37:00 GMT

I remain short AUDUSD from yesterday's 10165 and 10195 entries. I am moving the stop down to Monday's (10225) and still targeting 9860 (December low and Fibonacci extension). 10044 (12/29 low) is interim dupport.

Jamie’s Pick: 05/07/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 07 May 2012 14:29:00 GMT

The AUDUSD traded to a new 2012 low last night, slipping below the 1/9/12 low of 10145. Focus is on the 12/29/11 low at 10044 and confluence of the 100% extension of the decline from 10856 and 12/15/11 low at 9843/61. The level intersects channel support in early June. The bounce from last night’s low has reached resistance from 10200. Former lows at 10225 and 10245 are also resistance. Shorts are favored against 10280.

Jamie’s Pick: 05/03/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 03 May 2012 13:53:00 GMT

I remain short USDCAD (stop 9985) and long USDJPY (stop 7960) for larger moves. The biggest technical development is the NZDUSD break to late January levels. A breakout strategy is warranted-

The NZDUSD has broken to levels not since late January. Near term focus is on resistance from January at 7981 and 7910. Very rarely should one chase price in FX and this time is no exception. Rather, I favor shorts on pullbacks into 8060-8120 with a stop above 8165.

Jamie’s Pick: 05/02/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 02 May 2012 12:05:00 GMT

I’m trading USDJPY (long against 7960), CADJPY (long against 8050) and USDCAD (short against 9980) right now. The 5 wave advance from yesterday’s lows in the USDJPY and CADJPY (and every Yen cross other than EURJPY) reinforces a bullish bias against yesterday’s lows (use stops). As for USDCAD, 9925 is resistance and 9980 is the pivot.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/30/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 13:24:00 GMT

Action for all of 2012 may compose a triangle. If so, then an objective is 12566 (13176 – triangle width (13479-12869)). 13040/70 is resistance. I want to be short before EUR event risk that is due Wednesday-Friday.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/27/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 13:09:00 GMT

I just went short the EURUSD at 13260 with a stop at 13390. Price is at resistance from former support (3/29, 3/30, and 4/2 lows). Additional resistance comes in from trendline resistance just shy of 13300. A minimum objective is the bottom of the range near 13000.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/25/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 16:44:00 GMT

The US 10 year made a new high Monday to create divergence with the Yen. This was the trigger I was waiting for. Despite equities appearing vulnerable, reward/risk justifies longs here. It may take several attempts to align with the longer term USDJPY bull trend but I am bullish against 8025. A drop below there would expose 7950.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/23/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The AUDUSD is finally breaking down. Focus is on the 2012 low at 10145. CPI tonight should spark volatility. 10145-10386 is the opening range for the year (first 2 weeks) and a break of the early year range would open up the floodgates towards 9860 and 9660. CPI on Monday should spark volatility. 10315 is resistance Monday. Risk on shorts can be moved down to 10390.

5 waves down and 3 waves up at multiple degrees of trend. The NZDUSD is on the verge of collapsing. 8190 is resistance and risk on shorts can be moved down to 8130. A minimum objective (probably this week) is 7910.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/18/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 14:07:00 GMT

The combination of price pattern since the late February top and key reversal on Friday warrants a bearish stance against 8320. Resistance from December and the 100% extension of the 8471-8061 decline at 7878-7908 define the target area. Traders, CPI is due at 6:45 pm EST on Wednesday.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/17/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 14:13:00 GMT

Jamie’s Pick: 04/16/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 13:57:00 GMT

Thursday’s advance failed just before 10464 and at the underside of former trendline support and channel resistance. 10145-10386 is the opening range for the year (first 2 weeks) and a break of the early year range would open up the floodgates towards 9860 and 9660. Early week resistance is 10400.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/12/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 13:20:00 GMT

The April high at 10464 is the line in the sand for AUDUSD bears. Exceeding that level would shift focus to 10510 and 10595 (former supports). As long as price is below there, the trend is considered down and focus remains on the year to date low at 10145. Resistance is bolstered at the current level by the underside of former trendline support, channel resistance, 20 day average, and 200 day average.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/10/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 13:12:00 GMT

Additional shorts were triggered last night at 10350. The advance from Friday’s low is shallow and corrective and focus remains on the year to date low at 10145. Confidence in the bear side is high as long as price is below last night’s low (10357) although 10462 remains the key level.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/09/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 14:08:00 GMT

Volatility and the lagging nature of the AUDUSD in recent weeks are just a few reasons to be short. Focus remains on the year to date low at 10145. A break below the channel would suggest that a 3rd wave impulse is underway towards December pivots at 10043 and perhaps 9860 (161.8% extension is in the middle of those levels but I place more importance on prior pivots than Fibonacci). 10350 is resistance. I’m bearish against 10462.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/05/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 13:00:00 GMT

The EURUSD broken the January-March trendline support and focus is on the March low at 13003. 13150/65 resistance (noted on Twitter yesterday) held last night and 13110/30 is now short term resistance and 13180-13210 resistance next week. The decline from the top is in 5 waves as well (implications are for a corrective advance). Watch the underside of the freshly broken trendline for resistance in the coming days.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/04/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 13:33:00 GMT

I went short yesterday (published through Twitter) at 10340. The stop was 10375 which remains sufficient for now. Continue to look lower towards January pivots of 10230 and 10145 (YTD low). If risk really falls out of bed, then December lows at 10045 and 9860 are in focus. 10315/50 is resistance but the fast nature of the market necessitates an active approach and I’ll be updating short term levels through Twitter @JamieSaettele. I plan on being short throughout April but with varying degrees of leverage as markets reach mentioned supports/resistance.

Jamie’s Pick: 04/03/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 13:15:00 GMT

I was stopped out last night on the RBA spike. The AUDUSD has done nothing but decline since then stopping me out but this is sometimes the nature of trading. I do favor a breakdown and test of the 2012 low at 10145 but the choppy nature of the AUDUSD decline has made entering the short with proper risk management difficult. If I do anything, it'll be noted on Twitter @JamieSaettele.

Jamie’s Pick: 03/30/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 12:56:00 GMT

I want to be short for the US equity open as the near term pattern is especially bearish. In fact, the short term (and maybe long term) bearish equity pattern reinforces last night’s Yen crosses report. AUDJPY resistance is 8610/60 if price exceeds last night's high (I'll look to return to short side at those levels if stop is hit at 8570. Eventual objectives are 8385 and 8285.

Jamie’s Pick: 03/29/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 14:31:00 GMT

This trade idea was released this morning via Twitter @JamieSaettele. The logic is end of month continuation towards former pivots at 10220 and 10150 (which is the 2012 low). If 10145 is reached, I'd expect a bounce but trading to that level would confirm a large scale reversal.

Jamie’s Pick: 03/28/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 14:11:00 GMT

I feel like a broken record but there is no change to the call for a test of the high above 8400. The USDJPY has advanced steadily throughout February and March and the 3 wave decline from 8417 confirms weakness as corrective.

Jamie’s Pick: 03/27/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 14:14:00 GMT

Many analysts and traders, new and experienced alike, tend to overcomplicate Elliott wave analysis to the point of paralysis. The most important observations are usually the most basic, such as identification of 3 and 5 wave movements. A 3 wave movement indicates corrective movement and will probably be retraced (there are no certainties). The USDJPY decline from the top is in 3 waves. The low was identified in real time via Twitter @JamieSaettele last week. Stops can be moved up to 8260 and the objective is a new high.

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Jamie’s Pick: 03/26/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 16:48:00 GMT

Longs were triggered on Friday a 8200 (all real time trade ideas are released through Twitter @JamieSaettele) and the stop was moved up last night to 8235.

The USDJPY drop into 8200 may complete a corrective decline from 8417. The 8200 level is defended by the 20 day average, 50% retracement of the rally from 8001 and 3/13 low. A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above the March low of 8058. Interim resistance next week is 8295 and 8330. 8160 would be support is 8195 fails to hold.

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.