DailyFX Analyst Picks - Jamie Saettele

long USDCAD, against 1.0415, target 1.1500

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:26:47 GMT

I am very bullish on the USDCAD. A double zigzag decline from 1.3068 is considered complete and the pair has carved out a solid 1-2 base (5 up and 3 down) since the October low. A wave ii low is in place at 1.0415, which places the pair in wave iii higher targeting a break of 1.0875 followed by Fibonacci extensions of 1.1090 and 1.1500. Price ideally remains above 1.0610 but a drop under would expose support at 1.0590 and 1.0545.

flat GBPUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:29:09 GMT

I am not trading the British Pound right now. There are much better opportunities right now in my estimation. Here is this morning's commentary regarding the GBPUSD - "The GBPUSD has been in a consolidation mode since late May. Price has traded in a wide 1300 pip range since then in what could be corrective (continuation of strength) or distributive (reversal of strength). Structurally, movements since 1.7050 appear corrective (3 waves), which would suggest a triangle, flat, or leading diagonal (all patterns favor lower prices from here). The support line mentioned in recent days has been broken and gives scope to further losses. 1.6515 is the next levels of interest."

long USDJPY, against 88

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:18:05 GMT

I still like holding a small USDJPY long against 88.00. Bigger picture patterns suggest that the next leg of USD strength will be across the baord. In other words, the USD and Yen gaining against everything else in risk aversion may be over - at least temporarily. Looking at the chart - either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). One possibility from 88.00 is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35. A larger B or 2nd wave may be complete as a double zigzag from 92.35.

short EURUSD, stop above 1.5020

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:17:54 GMT

The bearish count is still valid as the EURUSD is quietly making lower highs. A break below 1.4625 is required in order to eliminate bullish alternative counts. Until then, it is certainly possible that consolidation since 1.5066 is simply a triangle. Still, consider the technical evidence that favors a significant reversal; a new USD Index low but no new low in USDCHF or new high in EURUSD, extreme COT readings, waning upside momentum (for EURUSD) and wave counts. I like being short the EURUSD.

NZDUSD short, limit entry at .7500

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:08:32 GMT

I still like returning to the short side of the NZDUSD trade near .7500/20. Price pattern is bearish against .7640. The decline from .7640 is impulsive and the rally from under .7100 is unfolding as a correction with wave b as a triangle.

USDCAD setting up

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:15:24 GMT

The USDCAD may be carving out a base from which to work higher. The rally from 1.0200 is best counted as 3 waves unless one allows for a truncated 5th wave. The pair turned up from just below the 61.8% of the advance from 1.0200 (maybe an early bullish sign). Above 1.0600 would be bullish and warrant consideration of a long. Until then, waters are murky.

USDCHF long

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:13:02 GMT

The US dollar index traded at a 16 month low yesterday but has rallied to signal that selling pressure may be exhausted. A USDCHF bullish bias is warranted against the low (1.0030). 1.0200 may serve as short term resistance but a longer term rally is probably underway (target 1.1000).

stay long USDJPY , stop at 88.00

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:36:33 GMT

Maintain a cautious bullish bias against 88.00. The bigger picture pattern is constructive. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). One possibility from 88.00 is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35. A larger B or 2nd wave is underway from 92.35. That correction may be complete at the ‘panic low’ that occurred two Sunday evenings ago although a drop under there would not require a change of the short term count. In that instance, potential support is at 88.70.

short NZDUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:04:32 GMT

The NZDUSD pattern is the clearest of the USD majors since the USD October low. Price pattern is bearish against .7640. The pair has dropped below a support line drawn off of the September and October lows and the decline from .7640 is impulsive. The rally from under .7100 takes a corrective form and has entered what is could be a strong resistance zone (.7410/45). Keep a stop above .7640.

short NZDUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:26:45 GMT

NZDUSD intraday price pattern is bearish against .7640. The pair has dropped below a support line drawn off of the September and October lows. The underside of that line is potential resistance at .7342 today and increasing 15 pips per day. The decline from .7640 is impulsive and the rally is corrective and possibly complete at .7316. Additional resistance would be .7360/75, and .7410/45. A break under .7100 exposes .6850.

long USDCHF, against 1.0030

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:22:14 GMT

The USDCHF has broken above its multi month channel resistance. The USDCHF short term count is similar to the EURUSD short term count in that they both may have completed expanded flats as wave 2 or B corrections. Favor the upside. I'll look to establish targets as the pattern progresses but 1.1000 is a longer term target.

USDJPY long, stop at 88, target above 93.25

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:20:19 GMT

I still like the USDJPY to the long side, albeit longer term and in small size from these levels. "The bigger picture pattern is constructive. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). I laid out a possible scenario for price action since 88 last week, which seems to be playing out. One possibility is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35. A larger B or 2nd wave is underway from 92.35. That correction may be complete at the ‘panic low’ that occurred Sunday night."

EURUSD short, limit order 1.4765, stop 1.4865, target 1.3750

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:32:59 GMT

The EURUSD has broken below the trendline that is drawn off of April and September lows and is now testing potential parallel channel support. With the pair testing support, expect a bounce. Bearish risk is now 1.4865 and potential resistance levels are 1.4680, 1.4730 and 1.4765 (61.8% Fibonacci). I am placing an order to short at 1.4765 with a stop above 1.4865. The target is 1.3750 (former 4th wave on one less degrree).

short AUDUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:33:55 GMT

I've been trading a lot of AUDUSD (from the short side) recently (all trades are indicated at DailyFX Forex Stream) Support turned resistance at .9180 did hold but the rally is sharp. Additional strength would shift focus to .9220 and .9275. We might get a chance to short at a higher price next week but I don't want to miss a collapse so staying short a small amount at current is ideal.

waiting for USDJPY setup (see below)

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:28:37 GMT

There is a trade setting up in the USDJPY. The bigger picture pattern is constructive. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). So what is going on since the low at 88? One possibility is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35. A larger B or 2nd wave is underway from 92.35 and the recent drop is probably wave a of that pattern. Coming under 90.24 would constitute wave c and potentially the end of the decline from 92.35. The trade will come from the long side below 90.24 with a stop below 88.00.

EURJPY long (see below)

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:01:00 GMT

The EURJPY has declined over 400 pips from its high made Monday. There is potentially strong support at 133.85 from 50% retracement and former congestion. Limit order to buy 10% position at 133.85, target 136.00.

stay long USDJPY , move stop to 91.50, target 93.80

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:22:37 GMT

USDJPY long continues to remain my favorite trade. Bigger picture, either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). Since the low at 88.00, a series of 1st and 2nd waves is visible. If this count is correct, then an exceptionally strong USDJPY rally is underway now. Targets are at 92.80 and 94.00 (Fibonacci extensions). Former resistance at .9134 is now potential support on a drop below 91.55. If you are already in this trade, then move risk to 91.50.

AUDUSD short, stop entry at .9175, stop .9300, target .8870

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:34:06 GMT

The AUDUSD reversal off of channel resistance (albeit unorthodox channel resistance) combined with momentum considerations (overbought + divergent) on multiple times frames put the pair at risk of at least a setback if not an outright reversal. Coming under .9181 would confirm as much.

Stay long USDJPY, move stop to 91.20, targets remain 92.80 and 94.00. Fading the GBPUSD rally worked out well. Take profit on half. Be sure to follow us at DailyFX Forex Stream in order to receive timely trade updates that you will not see here.

limit order to short GBPUSD at 1.6720, stop at 1.6810

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:25:32 GMT

With the 2 equal legs down from 1.7050, we must consider the possibility that the decline is a correction. However, it is also possible that a larger triangle or flat is underway from 1.7050. We won’t know what the pattern is of course until it more fully develops but there is short opportunity setting up now. A rally above 1.6643 would complete 5 up from 1.6239 and shift risk lower towards 1.6500 (at least). 1.6715/50 is a resistance zone that I will sell into.

short GBPUSD from 1.6450, stop 1.6750

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:23:55 GMT

Cable has exploded and now finds itself nearly 900 pips north of where it traded at last week’s low. With the 2 equal legs down from 1.7050, we must consider the possibility that the decline is a correction. However, it is also possible that a larger triangle or flat is underway from 1.7050. The FX Technical Weekly trade at 1.6450 (short) was triggered yesterday and the stop is at 1.6750. The trade looked good initially, moving 100 pips lower from entry. Of course, Cable then went vertical. Clearly, the extended advance was not expected but that is the nature of a longer term trade (the FX Technical Weekly trades are longer term...more risk but more reward).

Current trades,

Long USDJPY from 89.40, stop at 90.00 now, targets 92.80 and 94.00

Waiting to Jump on EURUSD Short Train

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:50:59 GMT

Focus remains on the top of the channel from early July (5^th wave channel), which is at 1.5045 today and increases 11 pips today. The channeling nature of the EURUSD since July suggests that this labeling is correct (treating the rally from the June low as wave v of C). This means that the push above 1.4847 is wave of 5 of v of C. There is a confluence of measurements at 1.5185 also. This is where wave .v of C would equal wave .i of C and where waves .iii through .v would equal 1.618 x .i. Coming under 1.4827 would indicate reversal.

I remain long the USDJPY from last week as well. I expect that the next wave of risk aversion will propel the US dollar higher - across the board (against the Yen as well).

USDJPY Long (from last week), stop at 89.85, target 93.80

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:18:42 GMT

Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). The push through 90.50 marked the completion of an inverse head and shoulders. A pullback this morning tested the breakout level and the USDJPY held. Additional support is 90.20. 92.80 (161.8% extension) is a short term target. The stop is at 89.85, below the breakout level.

waiting for NZDUSD short

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:35:58 GMT

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have made outside days. Outside days at tops indicate distributive price action, which can lead to reversal. I would rather be short the NZDUSD than the AUDUSD given the bullish wedge in the AUDNZD. A drop below .7250 would signal that it is time to go short the NZDUSD.

USDJPY long, stop 88.80, target 92.50

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:08:26 GMT

The USDJPY (and Yen in general) is one of the few currency pairs that I have been in synch with the past several months. I presented a count yesterday, mentioning that “the decline from 101.50 is simply not an impulse. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). The USDJPY has broken above 90.43, confirming a short term double bottom. Favor the upside against 88.00 and target 92.50 (measured level) as a minimum short term target.” Risk on longs can be moved to 88.80 and a measured objective is 92.86. There could be some supply at 91.73 (former support). Those not yet in the trade can attempt longs at support, which is from 90 to 90.20.

Flat now, waiting USDJPY long setup

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:51:40 GMT

The double bottom that I've been focusing on in the USDJPY would be confirmed on a rally through 90.50. Moving through there opens up a move to 92.50. Wait for this trade to set up but we should be able to take action next week.