DailyFX - Analyst Picks - Jamie Saettele

Trade Updates for 05/22/2013

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 22 May 2013 12:57:00 GMT

Updates for 5/22/2013...

A USDCHF move towards at leats 1.0100 is probably underway and the market is responding well to .9640 support. Several days of sideways action is welcomed by this bull...in order to increase positioin size with a tigher stop. ***Move risk on any remaining longs to .9645...below there would have me looking for support near .9575.

The GBPUSD is nearing possible support from 1.5000/32 but given picture bearishness from the 4 year triangle break in February, one should just let the downside play out. ***Risk on GBPUSD was moved down to 1.5195 last night. I would exit if 1.4900 if reached this week.

The EURUSD could still find a 4th wave high near the current level. The implications are for a drop below 1.2796 before a rally back towards 1.3020/70.

Commodity currencies / EM might be a bit too beat up. USDMXN is coming off after trading into the 4/5 and 4/23 highs. Near term USDZAR structure suggests a final high to complete 5 waves up before a deeper decline. This scenario fits with final lows in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD, probably near .9700 and .8052 before rebounds of several % that last at least a week. Exceeding Tuesday's highs would have me looking at the higher levels outlines in the Daily Technicals.

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Jamie’s Trading Program: 05/21/2013

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 21 May 2013 12:23:00 GMT

Updates for this morning...

A USDCHF move towards at leats 1.0100 is probably underway and the market is responding well to .9640 support. Several days of sideways action is welcomed by this bull...in order to increase positioin size with a tigher stop. If price can hold above Monday's low for all of Tuesday, then expect to increase long exposure for the next run.

The GBPUSD is nearing possible support from 1.5127 but given picture bearishness from the 4 year triangle break in February, one should just let the downside play out. Stops from Thursday's 1.5315 short entry is moved to 1.5285. LET IT RUN.

New NZDUSD shorts are working and the downside is significant.

Have yet to return to the AUDUSD short side as was looking for .9860 entry (last night's high was .9840). Will see what happens Tuesday before making a decision.

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Forex Trading Program Update: 05/16/2013

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 16 May 2013 12:49:00 GMT

Levels that I'm looking to be more long USD (these are not orders...rather levels to watch for reactions unless specified).

USDCHF .9580-.9610 (we are there now)

GBPUSD 1.5285-1.5310 (we are there now...order at 1.5315)

AUDUSD .9900?

NZDUSD .8254?

EURUSD (new) 1.2934/45

Levels that I'm looking to be less long USD (these are orders).

USDCHF target from completed pattern is 1.0100+

GBPUSD 1.5000

AUDUSD .9800 and .9700 (.9800 hit today)

NZDUSD .8060

EURUSD 1.2710

Took a USDJPY short this morning at 102.40 with a 102.80 stop and 100.40 target.

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Update to USD Trading Program: 05/15/13

Research Team, — Wed, 15 May 2013 18:36:00 GMT

Levels that I'm looking to be more long USD (these are not orders...rather levels to watch for reactions).

USDCHF .9580-.9610

GBPUSD 1.5285-1.5310

AUDUSD .9978

NZDUSD .8287

Levels that I'm looking to be less long USD (these are orders).

USDCHF - target from completed pattern is 1.0100

GBPUSD - 1.5000

AUDUSD .9800 and .9700

NZDUSD .8060

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Update to USD Trading Program: 05/15/13

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 15 May 2013 18:36:00 GMT

Levels that I'm looking to be more long USD (these are not orders...rather levels to watch for reactions).

USDCHF .9580-.9610

GBPUSD 1.5285-1.5310

AUDUSD .9978

NZDUSD .8287

Levels that I'm looking to be less long USD (these are orders).

USDCHF - target from completed pattern is 1.0100

GBPUSD - 1.5000

AUDUSD .9800 and .9700

NZDUSD .8060

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Jamie’s Trading: 05/14/2013

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 14 May 2013 12:52:00 GMT

The following are levels that I'm looking to be more long USD (these are not orders...rather levels to watch for reactions).

USDCHF .9507

GBPUSD 1.5330/85

AUDUSD 1.0000

NZDUSD .8306

The following are levels that I'm looking to be less long USD (these are orders).

USDCHF .9745

GBPUSD 1.5220

AUDUSD .9800 and .9700

NZDUSD .8055

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How I am Trading USD/CHF, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 13 May 2013 19:58:00 GMT

Indications are that the USD breakout is real. I'll be net long USD until further notice but position size will vary as the USD trades into resistance (less long USD) and into support (more long USD). Many that are correct about bigger picture direction will still lose money or not make as much as they should because their timing will be poor. The next few days may produce some sideways/corrective USD action...the GBPUSD is at channel support and the 13 week midpoint...the AUDUSD traded into the 6/25 low...the NZDUSD is at the trendline that extends off of the 2012 and 2013 lows and the downward sloping channel that defines the decline from the April high....the USDCHF traded into the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2012 high.

The following are levels that I'm looking to be more long USD (these are not orders...rather levels to watch for reactions).

USDCHF .9500

GBPUSD 1.5400

AUDUSD 1.0060/90

NZDUSD .8350/80

The following are levels that I'm looking to be less long USD (these are orders).

USDCHF .9745

GBPUSD 1.5200

AUDUSD .9700

NZDUSD .8055

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How I am Trading USD/CHF, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Sun, 12 May 2013 19:58:00 GMT

The following are levels that I'm looking to be more long USD (these are not orders...rather levels to watch for reactions).

USDCHF .9500

GBPUSD 1.5400

AUDUSD 1.0060/90

NZDUSD .8350/80

The following are levels that I'm looking to be less long USD (these are orders).

USDCHF .9745

GBPUSD 1.5200

AUDUSD .9700

NZDUSD .8055

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GBP/USD Rejection Below 1.5600 a Good Sign

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 09 May 2013 15:03:00 GMT

It's a good sign for bears that the GBPUSD could not take out the high. As such, the bearish outlook is on track. A break of the early month low would shift focus to the 4/11 high at 1.5410. Bigger picture, the May top could be extremely important.

Continue to keep an eye on GBPJPY as well. 154.30 could cap a rally.

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Favorite Trades Still NZD/USD and GBP/USD Shorts

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 07 May 2013 13:51:00 GMT

There isn't much for me to add today...my favorite 'ideas' remain short NZDUSD and GBPUSD. A 3rd of a 3rd wave decline could extend below .8100 this month (161.8% extension at .8075...November low at .8052). The NZDUSD is nearing the trendline that extends off of the March and April lows but the real waterfall decline would probably begin below .8360. .8470 is near term resistance. There is event risk tomorrow.

The AUDUSD may be on the verge of a huge breakdown...here is a setup.

The GBPUSD may be sucking in longs before the next drop. Event risk is Thursday but given reward/risk, I'm happy to be short in front of BoE.

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Stay Short Kiwi and Cable

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 06 May 2013 14:04:00 GMT

I remains short NZDUSD and GBPUSD. It's possible that significant moves are around the corner but for purposes of these trades, I'm looking to exit at .8400 and 1.5420. The USDCHF is also on the radar. Friday's weekly details what may be going on across the mentioned pairs.

With the AUDUSD on trendline support (line that extends off of 2012 and 2013 lows), event risk tonight could trigger a big move.

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The Great Unwing Coming in NZD/USD?

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 01 May 2013 15:43:00 GMT

Was stopped out of the GBPUSD short last night...quick and painless while I was sleeping...better than worrying about it for days (more on worrying below). What's annoying however is that price has reacted just shy of the 50% retracement of the decline from the January high (1.5605). The GBPUSD is in a good area for a top but need to wait for a setup with defined risk.

The NZDUSD short is working well. Price is nearing minor support at .8480 but stronger support is probably .8400. With a potentially important top in place at April's high, It's quite possible I'll be operating from the short side for several months. With last night's entry, am looking to exit this short at .8400...and then sell a bounce. Cover the drops and short the pops.

After worrying for days...gold and oil are finally starting to work. Estimated supports ahead of the lows are 1370 and 88.25.

Watchlist

Long USDMXN-would like to see a daily close above 12.2

Short AUDUSD-see what happens at the trendline off of the 2012 and 2013 lows

USDJPY-volatility has contracted so sharp moves are probably best faded on near term basis. Estimated support is 96.33 and resistance 98.30.

EURUSD-traded into the 50% retracement of the decline from the February high and reversed (so far)...estimated support is 1.3130/60.

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Looking to Short USDJPY

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:24:00 GMT

Friday's weekly covers why I don't want to be long and therefore why I want to be short. Resistance this week is concentrated between 98.47 and 99.23. I'll post entries on Twitter.

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Buying NZD/USD on a Dip

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 14:02:00 GMT

A flat correction appears to be unfolding from the 4/15 low. The implications are for the rally from the 4/23 low to exceed .8509 before the next leg lower. The 2/15 high is estimated resistance at .8533 along with the 4/12 low at .8546. In summary, looking to go long against .8350 for a run at .8530...then flip to short (maybe next week).

Also could see a run at 1.2800 in the EURUSD and pay attention to 1.0200 in AUDUSD. UK GDP may present a GBPUSD opportunity tomorrow.

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Trading EUR/USD Breakout

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 13:25:00 GMT

The EURUSD has broken through consolidation. Near term support is 1.3000-1.3010. Longs are favored there with a 1.3020 stop and targets of 1.3300 and 1.3400. The advance could pause at the 50% retracement of the decline from above 1.3700 at 1.3227. Consider breakout systems here.

Still long EURAUD for 1.2800 (stop is still 1.2445) and EURGBP for .8650 near term on half but longer term potential is significant.

The USDJPY is offering short term opportunities. Over the years, I've often talked about buying big down Mondays. That's exactly what we got yesterday. Shprt term trading levels are 98.35/60 as resistance and 97.00/30 as support.

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Risk off Day Puts Dent in AUD/USD

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 14:03:00 GMT

An Australian won the Masters (I had to be mention that because I love golf) but the currency is down sharply today with equities, and metals (which are being crushed). Remember, sharp risk off Monday's often produce buying opportunities for 'turnaround Tuesdays'. Still, the AUDUSD needs to hold 1.0345 for me to stayconstructive on a near term basis. Weakness below would open up a move for the 61.8% of the swing from 1.0115 at 1.0292. EURAUD and EURGBP longs are working and focus this week is on 1.2700-1.2800 and .8650. I'm looking at returning to the long side on EURUSD later this week, either on a dip into 1.2934/67 or a break above the last 3 days' consolidation. Breakout systems may be in play in EURUSD soon.

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Stay Short USD Through at Least Friday

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:02:00 GMT

Scaled out of most GBPUSD at 1.5400 - still see upside there but in general want to be bearish with larger trend after 4 year bearish triangle break in February...will probably be looking for a top to align with bear trend later in the month between 1.5500 and 1.5600.

Stops on EURUSD longs moved up to 1.3040. Focus remains on 1.3227 (50%) and 1.3320/40 (2/25 high and 61.8%).

The AUDUSD market is acting well...brushing off 'bad news' last night and currently trading above the huge 1.0550 area. The stop still needs to be 1.0345 because I will not be taken out on a spike lower with the potential for a run towards the measured level...which is above the free float record (breakout systems favored in the event of push through 1.0625).

I've received a lot of USDJPY questions lately. All I'll say is that it's not worth fighting the upside here unless price drops below 98.50 and then it would only be a consideration.

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How I am Managing EURUSD and AUDUSD Longs

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 13:11:00 GMT

Been long EURUSD since 4/4 and still looking higher but the stop has been moved up to 1.3025 in order to lock in a good deal. Upside levels of interest for the rest of the week are 1.3134/50 and 1.3227. 1.3320/40 is of interest for the rest of April.

AUDUSD breakout alert - as long as price is above 1.0345, the AUDUSD has potential to accelerate to the upside. Objectives surround the 2011 free float high at 1.1079. I went long yesterday but 1.0450/60 is support in the event that price comes off again. Exceeding 1.0625 would warrant consideration of a breakout system.

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Looking for EURUSD Follow Through on Reversal

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 13:29:00 GMT

On Friday, the EURUSD followed through on Thursday's daily reversal...this week I'm looking for the EURUSD to follow through on last week's reversal. To review, longs were taken on Thursday's close and risk has been moved up to 1.2900 (Thursday's low). Last night's low is in the 'looking for low' area focused on in the weekly but a drop below would probably encounter support from Thursday's close at 1.2934. Levels of interest through the month on the upside are 1.3327 and 1.3320/40. Event risk isn't especially heavy this week.

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Focus Shifts to Bank of Japan

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 13:23:00 GMT

General focus has shifted to BoJ tonight. Technically, 92.16-92.90 is viewed as important. The area is defined by the 2/8, 2/15, and 3/5 lows. A downtrend has developed from the March high but with price at support now shorting is not warranted. A rally on BoJ into resistance would present a short opportunity (look to AUDJPY too).

Was stopped out on GBPUSD longs at 1.5090 (slightly worse than breakeven) last night. Price is trading higher now which isn't all that surprising-mentioned in the technicals last night that a drop below 1.5090 could complete a flat correction. Also mentioned however that "with the rally from the March low failing at the 2012 low, I’m quick to pull the trigger on longs at 1.5090. We can always get back in if conditions warrant". BoE is tomorrow and we could get an opportunity to enter then.

No change to EURUSD other than it's on the 'watchlist' for longs.

The AUDUSD short from last week (which started off working well) is nearing the stop on daily close 1.0500 level. Nothing to do here other than sit tight. If price rolls over, then the decline will probably be sharp. If a close is registered above 1.0500, then I'm out.

Jamie Saettele, CMT

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GBP/USD Longs are Valid above 1.5090

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 13:08:00 GMT

Long GBP and short AUD isn't working out today and it's possible that the GBP leg of the trade will be stopped out (don't forget that the original GBPUSD long was on 3/13 near the lows and the second entry was at 1.5100). If the GBPUSD trades below 1.5090, then I'll be watching for support near 1.4990 (61.8% retracement).

The AUDUSD short (from 3/27) is valid as long as price is below 1.0500 on a daily closing basis. Weakness below 1.0420 would put the short back on track.

Watch the EURUSD down here; if price can hold and exceed 1.2890 by tomorrow, then I'm likely to go long.

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Long GBP/USD and Short AUD/USD Still My Play

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 13:02:00 GMT

Risk for GBPUSD longs should be moved up to 1.5090 (bias is bullish above 1.4830 though). If 1.5090 fails to hold, then 1.5045 and 1.4994 are estimated supports. Pay attention to the London open if trading GBPUSD.

I'm short AUDUSD with a stop on daily close above 1.0500, target 1.0310. RBA is a market mover tonight.

EURJPY, ZARJPY, and EURUSD on are on my watchlist at the moment.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Trading EURJPY Short Term

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 14:45:00 GMT

The GBPUSD is doing what we expected...1.5100 is serving as support. There is no change.

A spike lower this morning into EURJPY support defined by January resistance, the 2/25 large range day close, and a trendline offered the opportunity to get long for at least a bounce from the bottom of the multi-month range. The short term target is former support at 121.45. The midpoint of the recent range at 123.00 could come into play as well. As always, pay attention to the US open for turns in risk sensitive pairs.

-Jamie Saettele, CMT

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GBP/USD Larger Recovery Still Favored

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 15:03:00 GMT

I've been away since Thursday but it's nice to see recent GBPUSD action confirming a larger bullish bias. The move above minor resistance has led to an expected setback, which may be complete at 1.5134. I'm looking to add to the long position either above 1.5206 or near 1.5100. Targets are 1.5420 and 1.5600.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Update to GBP/USD Trading Operation

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:32:00 GMT

Recent commentary was that “reversals from wedges are often quick and the target is the origin of the pattern (in this case 1.5221).” The reversal is well underway. Expect a reaction off of 1.5221 but there is potential several weeks out for 1.5400-1.5600 (38.2%-50% of decline). Estimated near term support is 1.5010/40. Another reason to suspect that we head higher from here is the fact that the ‘reasons’ for the advance aren’t clear (once we get the ‘reasons’, it’ll be time to bail on longs).

We were able to catch last week's advance, exiting on Friday. Near term, price is holding 1.5070 so I've started to nibble on the long side once again. This chart offers a visualization of the trade plan from the current juncture. I'll either be adding after a rally to 1.5220 and pullback from that level or a drop into 1.5000.

On the watchlist but not yet active are

EURSEK longs, EURUSD longs, EURAUD longs, EURCHF longs, GBPAUD longs and AUDUSD shorts.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.