DailyFX - Analyst Picks - Ilya Spivak

EURUSD: Hold Short as Second Target Nears

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Wed, 16 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern and is now testing my second target at 1.2674 after meeting the first objective yesterday. I will conitnue to hold short with a revised stop-loss to be triggered on a daily close above 1.3073. The third objective once the second one is met is 1.2482.

EURUSD: Stay Short on Test of Target

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Mon, 14 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern and is now approaching our initial objective at 1.2865, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion level. I will look for a daily close below this boundary to move my stop-loss to the breakeven level and target 1.2674, the 50% Fib, from there. For now, the stop remains set to be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

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EURUSD: Remain Short into the Weekend

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Fri, 11 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern identified last week and has now taken out support at 1.3025. I will continue to hold short, looking for prices to hit my initial objective at 1.2865 over the comng days. An inverted Hammer candlestick formed yesterday warns that a corrective bounce may materialize before downside momentum resumes, a move that I will treat as an opportunity to add to my position. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Hold Short as Prices Approach Target

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Thu, 10 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

EURUSD: Support Break Exposes First Target

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Wed, 09 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern identified last week and has now overturned the Hammer candle formed above support at 1.3025 – a setup hinting at a possible recovery – with a break to the downside. I will continue to hold short, looking for prices to hit my initial objective at 1.2865 from here. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

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EURUSD: Possible Bounce Seen as Selling Opportunity

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Tue, 08 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern identified last week and now shows a Hammer above support at 1.3025, hinting a bounce may be ahead. I will continue to hold short, treating any bounce from here as an opportunity to add to the position. Near-term falling trend line resistance is now at 1.3257. Alternatively, a daily close below 1.3025 exposes our initial objective at 1.2865. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

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EURUSD: Continuing to Hold Short

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Mon, 07 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern identified last week, with sellers now testing below support at 1.3025. I will continue to hold short, looking for a daily close through this level to expose our initial objective at 1.2865. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

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EURUSD: Holding Short into French, Greek Elections

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Fri, 04 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair completed a bearish Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from the late February top and reversed lower. I will continue to hold short into the weekend's French and Greek elections, looking for a break of support at 1.3025 to expose my initial objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Continuing to Hold Short

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Thu, 03 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair completed a bearish Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from the late February top and reversed lower. I will continue to hold short, looking for a break of support at 1.3025 to expose my initial objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Holding Short as Selling Heats Up

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Wed, 02 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair completed a bearish Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from the late February top and dropped lower after a disappointing set of German unemployment figures and downward revisions in April PMI results. I will continue to hold short, looking for a break of support at 1.3025 to expose my initial objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: A Top in Place?

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Tue, 01 May 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair is now showing a bearish Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from the late February top, hinting a turn lower is ahead. I will continue to hold short, looking for a break of support at 1.3025 to expose my initial objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

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USDJPY: Entering Long on Break of 81.38

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

USDJPY is retesting familiar support at the 80.09-80.28 area marked by a horizontal pivot level as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this boundary exposes the 61.8% Fib at 79.13. I will stand aside for now and look for a daily close above falling trend line resistance set from mid-March now at 81.38 to enter long.

USDJPY: Entering Long on Break of 81.48

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

USDJPY is on pace to retest familiar support at the 80.09-80.28 area marked by a horizontal pivot level as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this boundary exposes the 61.8% Fib at 79.13. I will stand aside for now and look for a daily close above falling trend line resistance set from mid-March now at 81.48 to enter long.

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USDJPY: Long Trade Confirmation Pending

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I was expecting today's FOMC outcome to be supportive of USDJPY. Although the outcome proved to be largely as expected, the market's reaction left a lot to be desired. I still see scope for US Dollar upside however as traders digest the outing and will look for confirmation on a daily close above 81.60 to enter long, initially targeting 83.71.

USDJPY: Preparing to Enter Long

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I am expecting today's FOMC outcome to be supportive of USDJPY. Prices are testing falling trend line resistance set from the March 15 high and I will look for confirmation on a daily close above 81.62 to enter long, initially targeting 83.71.

EURUSD: Holding Short into FOMC

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair continues to trace out a choppy Head and Shoulders topping chart formation, with a daily close below neckline support at 1.3025 confirming the setup. I will remain short for now, maintaining an initial downside objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Holding Short Position

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair continues to trace out a choppy Head and Shoulders topping chart formation, with a daily close below neckline support at 1.3025 confirming the setup. The appearance of a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern warns an upswing may be ahead however, with initial resistance marked by a falling trend line now at 1.3303. I will remain short for now, maintaining an initial downside objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Holding Short Position

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair continues to trace out a choppy Head and Shoulders topping chart formation, with a daily close below neckline support at 1.3025 confirming the setup. The appearance of a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern warns an upswing may be ahead however, with initial resistance marked by a falling trend line now at 1.3303. I will remain short for now, maintaining an initial downside objective at 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

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EURUSD: Holding Short Trade

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair continues to trace out a choppy Head and Shoulders topping chart formation, with a daily close below neckline support at 1.3025 confirming the setup. I will remain short, maintaining an initial downside objective at 1.2864 for now. As before, a stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Holding Short Trade

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair continues to trace out a choppy Head and Shoulders topping chart formation, with a daily close below neckline support at 1.3025 confirming the setup. I will remain short, maintaining an initial downside objective at 1.2864 for now. As before, a stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD: Head and Shoulders Top Back in Play

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. Prices are reversing sharply lower anew having taken out rising trend line support guiding the 3/15-3/27 upswing and I will continue to hold short as the pair nears horizontal support at 1.3025, the would-be neckline of a somewhat different Head and Shoulders pattern than I originally envisioned with shoulders marked by the 2/9 and 3/27 highs and the head at the 2/24 top. I will wait for confirmation on a daily close below this level to consider adding more to the position. My initial objective remains 1.2864 and a stop-loss will be activated on a daly close above 1.3378.

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EURUSD: Head and Shoulders Top Back in Play

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

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EURUSD: Head and Shoulders Top Back in Play

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

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EURUSD: Head and Shoulders Top Back in Play

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT

EURUSD: Head and Shoulders Top Back in Play

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 11:01:00 GMT