DailyFX Analyst Picks - David Rodriguez

Stay short "EUR/JPY"

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:31:16 GMT

Last week I signaled my intention to go short EUR/JPY, and despite risk of being stopped out, I remain in the position. The pair is currently holding up at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 131-135.80 move at 132.80, but a break lower opens up a move towards 131--my profit target. I will update my stance if we see a substantive bounce from said resistance.

Stay short "EUR/JPY"

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:11:44 GMT

Stay short "EUR/JPY"

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:42:54 GMT

Stay short "EUR/JPY"

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:39:00 GMT

Stay short "EUR/JPY"

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:34:09 GMT

Hold EUR/JPY Short

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:26:49 GMT

Cover EURUSD short, Hold EURJPY Short

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:24:15 GMT

My EURUSD short was very clearly stopped out on the pair's explosive run above 1.50, but my EURJPY short is hanging on by a thread. I moved my stop just above 136.01, and the pair has thus far been unable to break the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 138.50-131.00 at 136.60. A hold of said level keeps me in the position, but I can't be confident being short 'risk' into such strong equity market rallies.

Short 'risk'

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:37:31 GMT

I continue to favor staying short 'risk', and I maintain my short EUR/USD and EUR/JPY positions, with targets set at 1.45 and 131, respectively. I think the post-NFPs tumble in equities will continue into the week ahead and, as such, I feel confident in the positions.

Tighten risk on EURJPY short

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:53:02 GMT

On friday I advocated tightening risk on the EURJPY short, protecting against risk of excessive pullbacks. I think it's still reasonable to remain short, but the position should be cut out on a break above 136.01. 131 is the short-term profit target.

Cover Half of EURUSD Short

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:39:15 GMT

I'd like to cover half of my EURUSD short at this stage and let the other half ride, locking in profit but not taking myself out of the trade too early. I've likewised halved my short position on EURJPY and yesterday tightened risk on both the EURUSD and EURJPY shorts. At this point let's see how far they can go. I think EURUSD 1.45 is a realistic ST target, while a re-test of 131 seems possible on the EURJPY.

Stay Short EURUSD and EURJPY

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:41:47 GMT

I've been short EURUSD for a little while now, and I'd like to tighten risk on the position to avoid giving away profit. The stop shall be moved above 1.4850, while first profit targets remains 1.4500. On Friday I likewise posted an update to my EURJPY, tightening risk to above 136.01. The first profit target has been hit at a break below 133 and traders should have halved their positions on the break.

Short EUR/JPY

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:50:25 GMT

I remain bearish Euros and, on balance, bullish JPY. What better way to express this view than to short EURJPY rallies. I don't like to aggressively fade momentum, but I also can't resist this selling opportunity, and my model Systems Trading account is currently short 2 lots of EURJPY. Selling at market (135.65) looks reasonable, as this is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 138.50-132.80 move. But if it moves higher, I might actually add at the 61.8% retracement of the same move at 137.30. Stops will have to be wide and this isn't a trade for those feint of heart. The trade should be cut out on a break of 138.50.

Short EUR/USD

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:46:21 GMT

I've been rather emotionally attached to the idea of a US Dollar long for quite some time now, so I hesitate to enter into a EUR/USD short. Yet when the going gets tough, I always fall back on my forte--system trading. I'd like to go short the EUR/USD because SSI-based Momentum2 of the DailyFX+ Trading Signals has gone short. Its stop is at 1.4940 with no set profit target. I am targeting a move towards 4500.

Short EUR/USD

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:52:56 GMT

Flat EURGBP

Unknown Field-Author — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:12:18 GMT

Last week I was sitting on a profitable EURGBP short position and, as luck would have it, I tightened my stop loss at exactly the wrong time. You win some, you lose some, and I lost this time. The pair has since pulled back slightly, but I'm already out of the position. This seems like a reasonable spot at which to go short, but I don't re-enter trades until at least 24 hours since I've been stopped out.

Prepare to short NZDUSD

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:07:13 GMT

I think currently bullish sentiment on the NZD is way overcooked as speculative positioning reaches levels not seen for years. I'll be looking to enter a short position when I see first legitimate signs of a potential pullback. But as it stands, there's too much upward momentum to reasonably take a short position.

Remain Short EUR/GBP

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:32:32 GMT

On Monday I wrote that I'd like to go short the EURGBP, and the trade has thus far panned out in my favor. I'd like to remain short the pair but put a more firm stop-loss on it, moving it just above the 10/15 peak at 0.9207. It has essentially already hit my first profit target at 9000, but I think it has further room to run. I think a test of the confluence of Moving Average support and the 50% Fib of 0.8450-0.9410 near 0.8930 remains likely, and that is where I shall set my first take-profit.

Flat the JPY

Unknown Field-Author — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:21:44 GMT

Last week I was taken out on the remainder of my GBPJPY short position at 144, and I've since remained flat the JPY. Of course, the better move would have been to flip to long, but hindsight is 20/20. Regardless, I don't have a strong short-term bias on the JPY, and I will stick to the sidelines until further notice.

Short EUR/GBP

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:26:06 GMT

I wrote on Friday that I believe the British Pound is likely to rally substantially in the weeks and months ahead on major sentiment extremes. The Euro has hit the opposite--bullish sentiment extremes, and I believe that the EURGBP is likely to enter a period of prolonged correction. I'd like to take a short from here, targeting first a test of the psychologically significant 9000 mark, and more likely a break lower. Stops are a little tricky, but a break above 0.9250 would definitively negate short-term bearish potential.

Short EUR/GBP

Unknown Field-Author — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:19:46 GMT

Short NZD/USD

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:30:38 GMT

Cover GBP/JPY position

Unknown Field-Author — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:04:52 GMT

My GBP/JPY short has been a fun ride, but today's massive reversal took me out at a very respectable gain. I initially shorted above 151, added at 144, and covered half the position at 140. The remainder had a stop above 144, which is obviously triggered now. I remain a medium-term bear, but I think it can rally further before declining.

Short Euro versus US Dollar

Unknown Field-Author — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 08:31:20 GMT

The past couple of weeks I've decided to take a step back from markets due to unfavorable market conditions. I typically trade in trends, and my trades often get chopped out through unpredictable market conditions. That being said, I see an opening with the Euro. Anyone who's followed my recommendations knows that I've attempted to go short the Euro against the US Dollar a countless number of times and have been chopped out. This time, I see that positioning data has become increasingly extreme for the Euro. If, as I suspect, these positions will be unwound as broader financial markets correct, the Euro will likely decline against the US Dollar.

I'd like to take a short entry at 1.4650. Stops will have to be loose, and this is not a trade for the intraday scalper. I plan to hold onto this for a few weeks if it works out.