DailyFX - Analyst Picks - David Rodriguez

Short AUDJPY against the High

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 20:00:00 GMT

I took an Australian Dollar short position against the Japanese Yen as per this morning's DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals update. The Breakout Opportunities strategy sold the AUDJPY as it broke below its 24-hour trading range low.

I think this is an attractive position given that it trades a short distance away from recent range highs at the ¥84.80 mark. I placed max risk above 84.80 and target a return towards recent lows near ¥83.00.

If currencies continue to hold their broader ranges, I'll look for similar opportunities in other pairs going forward.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Stopped out of EURUSD

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 20:00:00 GMT

I got stopped out of the Euro, and it's since reversed. You win some, you lose some. I'm likely to try and get back on the horse and sell once more on Sunday's open, but first I'd like to see how the market opens up.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Stopped out of EURUSD

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 20:00:00 GMT

I got stopped out of my EURUSD position today. I'm targeting a fresh run towards $1.3250 and above, but I'll stick to the sidelines for now.

For full writeup on my EURUSD forecast, view the sentiment-based forecast on the Euro/US Dollar. I likewise had a live trading webinar where I discussed the US Dollar and the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index in further detail.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Holding EURUSD short with Average $1.3116

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 16:15:00 GMT

I'm holding my EURUSD short position, somewhat nervously as the pair tests key resistance at $1.3150-1.3163, but I'm ultimately holding said position until we see a break above Thursday's high of $1.3163.

I talk about the EURUSD and the DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals on my weekly webinar on Trading Strategies. I remain bearish, but risk of a topside breakout remains real.

My targets are a break of $1.3033, $1.3000, $1.2960, and eventually a move towards $1.2600. But it's one step at a time and I'm waiting for the next major move to re-evaluate the position.

The US Dollar remains at pivotal resistance. A break higher here (lower in the EURUSD) would suggest a EURUSD run towards January lows of $1.26 is in the cards.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Holding EURUSD short with Average $1.3116

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 19:50:00 GMT

I once again added to my EURUSD short position and am now at my maximum leverage for any single position in my account. As this is the only trade I have open, I'll risk a total of 5% of my account if I get stopped out completely.

The temptation is to trail the stop above the overnight high of $1.3143, but I see no compelling reason to change it from the original given how choppy markets have been.

My targets are a break of $1.3033, $1.3000, $1.2960, and eventually a move towards $1.2600. But it's one step at a time and I'm waiting for the next major move to re-evaluate the position.

The US Dollar remains at pivotal resistance. A break higher here (lower in the EURUSD) would suggest a EURUSD run towards January lows of $1.26 is in the cards.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Adding to EURUSD short from 1.3105

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 21:30:00 GMT

I remain short EURUSD from 1.3150, and I've since added to the position on the EURUSD's failure to break above congestion resistance in the $1.3110-1.3130 range. I like the position on a hold of Thursday's high of $1.3163, and I'm targeting a break of $1.3100.

The US Dollar remains at pivotal resistance. A break higher here (lower in the EURUSD) would suggest a EURUSD run towards January lows of $1.26 is in the cards.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Holding EURUSD short into the weekend

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 13:30:00 GMT

Two days ago I wrote on the Real Time News feed that I put in a sell-limit order on EURUSD at $1.3150. My entry triggered and I'm sitting short as the Euro trades near important lows.

Yesterday I trailed my stop above $1.3163 and feel comfortable holding the position into the weekend. The bad NFP report initially sent the EURUSD sharply higher, but as markets settle down I don't think we see any sharp USD losses through the foreseeable future and am comfortable remaining long (short EURUSD).

I'm targeting a break below $1.30, $1.2960, and $1.2800.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Short EURUSD From 1.3150, Trailing Stop

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 21:00:00 GMT

Yesterday I wrote on the Real Time News feed that I put in a sell-limit order on EURUSD at $1.3150. My entry triggered overnight and I'm sitting short as the Euro trades near important lows.

I'd like to trail my stop to the Euro session high of $1.3163. That would leave the stop at slightly worse than breakeven, but that's okay. I'm targeting a break below $1.30, $1.2960, and $1.2800.

I'm not ready to take partial profits yet, though trailing my stop limits my losses if the pair does turn higher.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long USDJPY against 82.35

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 22:20:00 GMT

I took a long post-FOMC on USDJPY as I thought a serious move higher in Treasury Yields pointed to further USDJPY gains.

I think this may continue as the 10-Year Treasury yield moves sharply off of its 200-day moving average, and the correlation between treasuries and the USDJPY trades near record strength. Targets are 83.30, 84, and obviously fresh highs.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Flat and nervous

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 21:45:00 GMT

Last week I said "the next big US Dollar moves may need to wait until April." Yet here we are and the short-term trend is no clearer to me than it was previously.

In my weekly strategy outlook I point out the fact that the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) is at potentially make or break support to start the week, month, and quarter. Could the USD bounce or will it break lower?

The Speculative Sentiment Index shows that crowds are heavily net-long the USD across the board. This has led the DailyFX PLUS Forex Trading Signals to take contrarian short positions and go long AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and NZDUSD. The same systems are also short USDJPY.

I'm nervously optimistic that those systems will make good trades. But the key question is whether the USDOLLAR breaks key support at 9900.

I'm currently flat but nervously flat. Could be great trading coming up soon.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Holding EURAUD long into weekend

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 18:15:00 GMT

I still like being short US Dollar, but recent SSI readings suggest the next big Dollar moves may need to wait until April.

I remain long EURAUD as a way to avoid the dollar and take advantage of what I view as a bullish Euro setup versus a bearish Aussie trend. I bought on a break of highs at A$1.2711, and feel good about the trade as it breaks above previous YTD peaks of A$1.2755.

I've trailed my stop as of yesterday to below congestion support at A$1.2800.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long EURAUD, NZDUSD Long Stopped Out

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 18:30:00 GMT

I still like being short US Dollar, but recent SSI readings suggest the next big Dollar moves may need to wait until April. I got stopped out of my NZDUSD long position as it took out week-to-date lows. I think the idea was right, but the timing was clearly off as the Dollar seems only willing to consolidate in a very wide range across the board.

I'll move my stop on the EURAUD long to just below congestion support at A$1.2800.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Closed USDJPY short, Long EURAUD, NZDUSD

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 20:55:00 GMT

I closed my USDJPY short position at a very modest profit as it broke above my line in the sand of ¥83. I think the Japanese Yen stands to weaken across the board, likely driven by forex correlations and a drop in US Treasury Yields.

I still like being short US Dollar, and as my weekly strategy outlook piece points out, I think it's headed lower through this week. I've taken a long position on the NZDUSD via the DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals 'Tidal Shift' signal. As per said writeup, I like it as long as it remains above yesterday afternoon's low of $0.8200 and the week-to-date low of $0.8140 is my "line in the sand".

I've likewise gone EURAUD long once again as it breaks daily highs at A$1.2711, targets subsequent YTD peaks of A$1.2755 and eventually a move much higher. My trade will remain in force as long as price remains above the London session low of A$1.2660.

This leaves me long EUR and NZD, short AUD and USD. In essence the NZD and AUD exposure somewhat cancels each other out, which implicitly means I'm long EURUSD. I like these trades as long as EURUSD respects $1.3280.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Remain Short USDJPY below ¥83

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 16:50:00 GMT

I remain short the USDJPY from ¥83.40 and have since trailed my initial stop to roughly breakeven at 83.60. I will actually trail the stop even further, as I think a break above 83.00 points to further topside. A bearish market that isn't falling isn't bearish, hence I'll be cautious from here on in.

I still like being short US Dollar, however, and as my weekly strategy outlook piece points out, I think it's headed lower through this week. I'm on the lookout for good entries, particularly on EURUSD and AUDUSD. As always I'll keep my thoughts updated on the Real Time News feed.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Closed EURAUD Long, Remain Short USDJPY

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 19:55:00 GMT

I closed my EURAUD position from A$1.2535 as the pair broke below intraday congestion at 1.2730. for a potential gain of abotu 190 pips. I'm looking at a re-entry at a better price, perhaps as early as 1.2600 as I think the pair stands a strong chance of continuing higher. In fact I may even get in a worse price on Sunday if conditions dictate.

I remain short the USDJPY from ¥83.40 and have since trailed my initial stop to roughly breakeven at 83.60. I still like the trade and am targeting a return to 81.80 at very minimum, though a move towards 80.00 seems plausible. As always I'll keep my thoughts updated on the Real Time News feed.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long EUR, GBP, short AUD, USD

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:40:00 GMT

I remain long EURAUD from 1.2535 and have just narrowly missed getting stopped out. I have further confidence in the position now that "Tidal Shift" of the DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals has taken the position. Furthermore, the SSI shows that traders are net-long the AUDUSD while short the EURUSD. This makes me effectively bullish EURAUD until further notice.

I remain long GBPUSD but not by much, as the position has just narrowly missed getting stopped out. I may soon lose patience with the trade as the pair trades near the top of its multi-month range. Yet the SSI shows crowds are short and I have no compelling reason to close just yet.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long AUD, EUR, GBP, short USD

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 20:00:00 GMT

I remain long EURAUD from 1.2535 and have just narrowly missed getting stopped out. I have today added AUDUSD and GBPUSD longs to the mix as per the DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals "Trend Follower" and "Tidal Shift" strategies. I like what the S&P 500 is doing here and have flipped my bearish 'risk' bias. That leaves my EURAUD position as sort of an outlier, but my AUDUSD long gives me net-AUD long exposure and I'm looking for further strength.

Standing pat on the USDJPY for now. Recent Commitment of Traders data warns that the sophisticated Non-commercial trader market (large speculators) is piling into USDJPY longs in a hurry. It could get tricky for bulls from here on in.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Flat -- for now

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 20:30:00 GMT

I remain long EURAUD from 1.2535 from three days ago, and right now the position is sucking wind.

I feel less confident in this trade as the S&P 500 takes out fresh highs. It's entirely possible that my change in stance towards selling AUD was premature as stocks are proving resilient. That said, we'll know relatively soon if the EURAUD is in fact headed for fresh lows. 1.2398 remains the line in the sand for me.

In the meantime, I'm looking for fresh US Dollar highs against the Euro and Japanese Yen. I'm looking to buy USD dips and will update any trade opportunities here and on the real time news feed.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long EURAUD against the Low

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 19:45:00 GMT

I remain long EURAUD from 1.2535 from yesterday, and right now the position is sucking wind. My trade was based on a significant sentiment shift as seen through the SSI, and our DailyFX PLUS 'Tidal Shift' strategy went long. The position on DailyFX PLUS has since been stopped out, but I remain bullish as long as we remain above Sunday's low of 1.2398.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/?technicalSentiment=EUR/USD

Long EURAUD against the Low

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 20:45:00 GMT

Two weeks ago I was bullish 'risk' and bearish EURAUD. But times change and I change with them, and I see ample evidence that the Australian Dollar may head lower across the board. In fact, I discuss the full reasoning behind my bearish 'risk' currencies bias in this week's forex strategy outlook webinar.

I'm long from 1.2535 against the weekly low of 1.2398. A break to fresh highs targets 1.2612 and beyond.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/?technicalSentiment=EUR/USD

Short EURAUD Against the High, Tighten Stop

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 17:15:00 GMT

I recently wrote: "I like a EURAUD short against the highs at 1.2428. A minimum 1:1 Risk/Reward means that my first target will need to be the next low at 1.2228. But realistically I'm targeting fresh lows."

Full justification (from original post) is below. I still like the trade and my reasoning remains the same. The only change today is that I'm shifting my stop as I like 1.2345 as a max risk level. First target remains 1.2228, but that's there as reference and I'm unlikely to take anything off the trade there. I would likely change my tune if se see a test of 1.2150 and would probably take some profits.

Original justification: "Why? 'Risk' is on as the S&P 500 Rallies and the S&P's Volatility Index (VIX) trades near pre-Lehman lows. The strongly negative correlation between the VIX and AUDUSD points to further Aussie upside.

All the while, I think there's real risk that the EURUSD set an important short-term top. Why not go through the individual pairs? For one, being efficient with available margin in my own trading account. The other--I like the downtrend in the EURAUD. "

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Short EURAUD Against the High

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 19:50:00 GMT

I've been looking for AUDUSD long opportunities and most recently EURUSD short positions. So why not combine the two?

I like a EURAUD short against the highs at 1.2428. A minimum 1:1 Risk/Reward means that my first target will need to be the next low at 1.2228. But realistically I'm targeting fresh lows.

Why? 'Risk' is on as the S&P 500 Rallies and the S&P's Volatility Index (VIX) trades near pre-Lehman lows. The strongly negative correlation between the VIX and AUDUSD points to further Aussie upside.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long AUDUSD against 1.0743

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 14:40:00 GMT

As I said yesterday, I am looking for opportunities to get long AUDUSD. I really like the low FX volatility expectations and low S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX).

The question is timing. I like a long at current market of $1.0753 against the Asia session low of $1.0743. An extremely tight stop means that I'm more levered than usual. If I get stopped out, I'll likely take another bite at the apple at $1.0700 and $1.0650.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Flat EURUSD, Looking to buy AUDUSD

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 19:30:00 GMT

I closed my EURUSD position on Friday's session as I didn't want to hold it over the weekend. That left me flat in to Sunday, but I didn't like the fact that the EURUSD was hitting fresh lows after it opened. As such, I've stood to the side.

The AUDUSD on the other hand trades well-above where it started the session. As per the DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals, I like being long AUDUSD. The question is where exactly. As per the "Tidal Shift" trading system, a good entry might be at current market price. But risk/reward isn't there for me. Wait and see time.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".

Long EURUSD, Moving Stop

David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 11:55:00 GMT

I remain long EURUSD with an average entry price of $1.3240, and it's time to trail the stop to roughly breakeven. I remain quite bullish as per the SSI's weekly US Dollar forecast.

I'm still targeting a move towards $1.3550.

--- Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive this author's reports via e-mail, contact drodriguez@dailyfx.com with subject line "Distribution List".