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SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

By , Currency Strategist
15 April 2014 12:00 GMT

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_Picture_1.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

Download up to 7 years of historical SSI data via this ZIP file.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1028.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

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Currency Spotlight:

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1029.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.88 as 26% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.58; 22% of open positions were long. Long positions are 17.4% higher than yesterday and 11.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 5.6% lower than yesterday and 10.5% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.6% lower than yesterday and 3.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1030.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.32 as 23% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.86; 26% of open positions were long. Long positions are 10.9% lower than yesterday and 0.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 5.6% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.3% lower than yesterday and 6.7% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1031.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.09 as 52% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.16; 54% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 21.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 13.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.6% higher than yesterday and 4.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1032.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.91 as 74% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.69; 73% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 44.5% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 6.8% lower than yesterday and 12.7% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.2% lower than yesterday and 17.5% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1033.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.38 as 81% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 5.07; 84% of open positions were long. Long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 21.4% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 4.9% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.0% higher than yesterday and 7.4% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but further long since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1034.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.37 as 58% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.38; 58% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 16.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 6.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.3% higher than yesterday and 8.4% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCAD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1035.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.20 as 46% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.36; 42% of open positions were long. Long positions are 8.4% higher than yesterday and 1.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.7% lower than yesterday and 17.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.9% higher than yesterday and 1.9% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1036.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.75 as 36% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.15; 32% of open positions were long. Long positions are 20.2% higher than yesterday and 56.3% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 17.9% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.7% higher than yesterday and 1.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1037.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 22.31 as 96% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 18.98; 95% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 40.6% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 14.2% lower than yesterday and 32.1% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 29.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1038.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

XAUUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the XAUUSD stands at 1.51 as 60% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.36; 58% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 1.3% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 6.7% lower than yesterday and 3.3% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.7% lower than yesterday and 0.1% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the XAUUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1039.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

SPX500 - The ratio of long to short positions in the SPX500 stands at -1.87 as 35% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.09; 48% of open positions were long. Long positions are 24.3% lower than yesterday and 18.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 30.5% higher than yesterday and 8.6% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.2% higher than yesterday and 2.2% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the SPX500 may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Positioning-Still-Favors-Further-US-Dollar-Declines_body_x0000_i1040.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Positioning Still Favors Further US Dollar Declines

EURJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURJPY stands at 1.04 as 51% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.05; 51% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 15.0% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 1.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.5% higher than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

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15 April 2014 12:00 GMT