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SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

By , Currency Analyst
19 March 2014 11:30 GMT

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_Picture_1.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

Download up to 7 years of historical SSI data via this ZIP file.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1028.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

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Currency Spotlight:

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1029.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -4.46 as 18% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -4.45; 18% of open positions were long. Long positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 2.8% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 9.8% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.4% lower than yesterday and 6.7% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1030.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.22 as 31% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.26; 31% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 19.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 6.4% lower than yesterday and 21.3% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 5.9% lower than yesterday and 32.9% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1031.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.43 as 59% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.65; 62% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.9% lower than yesterday and 4.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 11.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.9% higher than yesterday and 6.9% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but further long since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1032.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.59 as 72% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.37; 70% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 32.1% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.6% lower than yesterday and 27.7% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.6% higher than yesterday and 6.5% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1033.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.26 as 81% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 4.49; 82% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 25.6% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 12.9% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.5% lower than yesterday and 30.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1034.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.66 as 38% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.32; 43% of open positions were long. Long positions are 10.7% lower than yesterday and 5.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 12.3% higher than yesterday and 11.8% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 2.4% higher than yesterday and 17.5% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the USDCAD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1035.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.71 as 63% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.04; 67% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 26.9% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 47.5% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.6% higher than yesterday and 12.6% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1036.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -3.47 as 22% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.91; 26% of open positions were long. Long positions are 9.8% lower than yesterday and 0.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 57.1% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 53.4% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1037.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 14.53 as 94% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 13.92; 93% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 10.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 19.3% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.7% lower than yesterday and 19.7% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1038.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

XAUUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the XAUUSD stands at 1.24 as 55% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.11; 53% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 20.6% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 6.6% lower than yesterday and 27.3% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.0% lower than yesterday and 6.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the XAUUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1039.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

SPX500 - The ratio of long to short positions in the SPX500 stands at -3.91 as 20% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.06; 25% of open positions were long. Long positions are 9.8% lower than yesterday and 10.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 15.1% higher than yesterday and 6.5% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.9% higher than yesterday and 19.3% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the SPX500 may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

SSI-Retail-Crowd-Largely-Positioned-for-Hawkish-FOMC-USD-Strength_body_x0000_i1040.png, SSI: Retail Crowd Largely Positioned for Hawkish FOMC, USD Strength

EURJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURJPY stands at -1.17 as 46% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.24; 45% of open positions were long. Long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 11.4% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 13.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 2.2% higher than yesterday and 4.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

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19 March 2014 11:30 GMT