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SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

By , Currency Strategist
14 March 2014 12:00 GMT

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_Picture_1.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

Download up to 7 years of historical SSI data via this ZIP file.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1028.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

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Currency Spotlight:

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1029.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -4.96 as 17% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -6.41; 13% of open positions were long. Long positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 19.0% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 13.8% lower than yesterday and 25.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 10.4% lower than yesterday and 1.3% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1030.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.98 as 25% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.96; 25% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 16.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 43.1% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 2.3% lower than yesterday and 24.8% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1031.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.82 as 65% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.36; 58% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 64.2% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 23.2% lower than yesterday and 49.1% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.1% lower than yesterday and 1.6% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1032.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.58 as 72% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.70; 63% of open positions were long. Long positions are 22.3% higher than yesterday and 27.1% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 19.2% lower than yesterday and 35.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 7.0% higher than yesterday and 4.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1033.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 7.23 as 88% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 7.31; 88% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 31.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 8.7% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.9% lower than yesterday and 9.1% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1034.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.59 as 39% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.73; 37% of open positions were long. Long positions are 8.1% higher than yesterday and 20.4% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 9.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 2.5% higher than yesterday and 14.0% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the USDCAD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1035.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.77 as 73% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.58; 72% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 11.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 34.9% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.9% higher than yesterday and 11.1% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1036.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -8.07 as 11% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -8.92; 10% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 16.3% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 12.4% lower than yesterday and 50.4% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 11.5% lower than yesterday and 7.7% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1037.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 19.29 as 95% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 16.38; 94% of open positions were long. Long positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 10.9% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 38.3% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 6.4% higher than yesterday and 0.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1038.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

XAUUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the XAUUSD stands at -1.27 as 44% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.40; 42% of open positions were long. Long positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 5.7% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 2.4% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the XAUUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1039.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

SPX500 - The ratio of long to short positions in the SPX500 stands at -2.69 as 27% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.37; 23% of open positions were long. Long positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 34.6% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 14.4% lower than yesterday and 36.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 9.5% lower than yesterday and 9.7% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the SPX500 may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SSI_Draghi_Commentary_Provides_Spark_for_EURUSD_Bears_body_x0000_i1040.png, SSI: Draghi Commentary Provides Spark for EUR/USD Bears

EURJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURJPY stands at -1.31 as 43% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.15; 47% of open positions were long. Long positions are 17.8% lower than yesterday and 21.3% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 5.8% lower than yesterday and 18.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 11.4% lower than yesterday and 1.5% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

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14 March 2014 12:00 GMT