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SSI: Sharp EUR/USD Turn Around Alters Outlook to Bullish Post-NFPs

By , Currency Strategist
05 April 2013 13:25 GMT

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

SSI_Sharp_EURUSD_Turn_Around_Alters_Outlook_to_Bullish_Post-NFPs_body_Picture_3.png, SSI: Sharp EUR/USD Turn Around Alters Outlook to Bullish Post-NFPs

SSI_Sharp_EURUSD_Turn_Around_Alters_Outlook_to_Bullish_Post-NFPs_body_Picture_2.png, SSI: Sharp EUR/USD Turn Around Alters Outlook to Bullish Post-NFPs

Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD – The initial reaction post-ECB yesterday was for a move lower in the EURUSD, but the Bear Flag breakout on the 4H time frame proved to be a false move, and instead the daily Bullish Falling Wedge proved to be the dominant pattern. With price clearing 1.2875/900, an April low looks to have been set at 1.2745/50, as the short-term technical structure is bullish. In line with this swing, retail traders have turned bearish on the EURUSD, suggesting that the technical turn may have legs yet. 1.3000 is to be watched to the upside, with 1.3075/100 in focus thereafter.

SSI_Sharp_EURUSD_Turn_Around_Alters_Outlook_to_Bullish_Post-NFPs_body_Picture_1.png, SSI: Sharp EUR/USD Turn Around Alters Outlook to Bullish Post-NFPs

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.41 as 42% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.47; 59% of open positions were long. Long positions are 20.6% lower than yesterday and 16.9% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 63.7% higher than yesterday and 51.3% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 13.5% higher than yesterday and 12.8% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has flipped from net-long to net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.13 as 47% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.83; 65% of open positions were long. Long positions are 20.7% lower than yesterday and 12.6% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 63.7% higher than yesterday and 2.4% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 9.2% higher than yesterday and 2.6% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has flipped from net-long to net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.68 as 37% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.77; 36% of open positions were long. Long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 9.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 3.5% lower than yesterday and 6.3% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.6% lower than yesterday and 4.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.44 as 59% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.31; 57% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.6% lower than yesterday and 24.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 13.4% lower than yesterday and 3.7% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.4% lower than yesterday and 8.3% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 5.26 as 84% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.37; 58% of open positions were long. Long positions are 205.0% higher than yesterday and 187.2% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 20.6% lower than yesterday and 34.7% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 109.8% higher than yesterday and 79.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.05 as 49% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.19; 54% of open positions were long. Long positions are 21.7% lower than yesterday and 10.3% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 6.0% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 8.5% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the USDCAD may continue higher. The trading crowd has flipped from net-long to net-short from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.17 as 54% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.04; 51% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 30.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.8% lower than yesterday and 8.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.9% lower than yesterday and 19.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -2.54 as 28% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.01; 33% of open positions were long. Long positions are 16.1% higher than yesterday and 34.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 47.2% higher than yesterday and 44.9% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 36.9% higher than yesterday and 22.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 12.29 as 92% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 10.82; 92% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 7.1% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 12.2% lower than yesterday and 26.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.3% lower than yesterday and 34.8% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

XAUUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the XAUUSD stands at 3.79 as 79% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 3.86; 79% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 5.7% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 21.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 2.9% lower than yesterday and 1.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the XAUUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but further long since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

SPX500 - The ratio of long to short positions in the SPX500 stands at -3.48 as 22% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -4.88; 17% of open positions were long. Long positions are 25.8% higher than yesterday and 103.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 10.4% lower than yesterday and 37.5% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.2% lower than yesterday and 9.5% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the SPX500 may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

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05 April 2013 13:25 GMT