Updated: 14-Apr-08 08:59 ET

March Retail Sales

Updated: 14-Apr-08 08:59 ET

Highlights

• March retail sales 0.2%, ex-autos 0.1%.

Key Factors

• The gain came from higher gasoline prices.  Retail sales ex-gas stations were flat, leaving only 2 gains (both just 0.1%) over the last six months.
• Annual declines in autos and other higher prices and housing related durable goods offset the gains in nondurables.  Retail sales are up just 0.1% from a year ago.
• Auto sales showed an unexpected rise given the lowest number sold in 15 years.
• Other durable goods (building materials, furniture, electronics) showed a fourth monthly decline.
• Nondurables (food, sporting goods, non-store retailers) showed the gains in addition to the 1.1% rise at gas stations.

Big Picture

• Retail sales are nearly flat (0.1% yoy) from a year ago given the weight of high gas prices, falling home prices and weakening consumer confidence.  The housing recession drags consumer durable goods (e.g.  furniture, building equipment, appliances) as auto sales remain extremely weak   Despite the historically low unemployment rate and moderate income growth, high energy prices have had a deflating effect on consumer spending and big ticket durable goods purchases particularly.  Retail goods sales add to service spending to leave total consumer spending.