Updated: 28-Aug-08 09:07 ET

Initial Claims for the Week Ended Aug 23

Updated: 28-Aug-08 09:07 ET

Highlights

• The recent increase in new claims for unemployment is disconcerting, but not a reason to panic.  Claims ran at over 400,000 per week through much of 2002, even as real GDP growth averaged 1.7%.  Employment conditions lag overall economic trends, and the moderate economic growth in the second quarter will be followed by decent growth in the third quarter.  Employment conditions could therefore improve in the fourth quarter.  
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Key Factors

• Raw Data: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

Big Picture

• Unemployment claims are running at elevated levels, but well below levels experienced in the past two recessions.  The four-week moving average has been near 375,000 since early March.  This steady trend contrasts with the sharp increase in claims that occurred ahead of the 2001 recession, when claims spiked to over 400,000 per week by mid-April after the start of recession in January.  The current trend in claims is consistent with moderate declines in payrolls, but not at the rate of 150,000 per month or more seen in true recessions.