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Forex Analyst Picks & Strategies

Kristian Kerr RSS Twitter

Sr. Currency Strategist
Kristian Kerr

April 27, 2015 My Picks: Pending short USDOLLAR
Expertise: Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: Few days to few weeks

With the FOMC decision slated in a couple of days there is plenty of promise for some directional volatility in its aftermath. The price action in the FXCM US Dollar Index has been worrisome over the past month and warns that a deeper correction could be unfolding in USD. Friday’s close below 11,925 technically triggered a minor head & shoulders top in the index that paves the way for a potential decline towards 11,700. However, there is significant risk that that the index is just testing the bottom of its multi-week range and I would prefer to see traction under the lows of the consolidation at 11,890 before adding to or initiating USD short positions.

For more details on these and other setups that interest me, visit me for on DailyFX on Demand where I cover the markets.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

John Kicklighter RSS Twitter

Chief Currency Strategist
John Kicklighter

April 22, 2015 My Picks: Short: USDJPY; Pending: GBPUSD, GBPNZD, EURAUD
Expertise: Fundamentals and Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 Week - 3 Months

There are two general themes that are building pressure: a dollar and risk correction. Both are in strong, persistent trends; but each move faces a threat of retreat. For the USD, the risk is more imminent but the corrective move is more likely to be temporary in nature - returning to the dominant trend more readily. For risk, years of speculative build presents are far more concerning situation; but the ultimate turn is more difficult to muster.

Whether a Dollar or Risk pullback, the USDJPY is well positioned - it would be a strong fundamental wind to see both occur at the same time. Marking traction is proving difficult, the next key level for progress is a break below 118.

In a Dollar pullback scenario, there is perhaps speculative access on many of the majors; but the GBPUSD carries the best profile to leverage a pullback. A move above 1.5000 when other Dollar pairs make breaks is my preferred view.

For a revival of the Dollar's strength, there are many prominent trends to choose from, but my view would be that follow through would be difficult to maintain without a correction of the Fed hastening the countdown to a hike, so I view NZDUSD breaking 0.7600 for a short-term outlook as better suited.

Outside of the majors and risk, GBPNZD is in a much larger inverse head-and-shoulders position. A break above 1.9550 would open the door to moving back within a much larger range (to the neckline).

EURAUD is another bigger picture technical setup with a unique play on fundamentals. If the Euro enters another general slump, I would look for a break below 1.3700 as a cue for a long-term trendline support on a 'rough' head and shoulders pattern.

For more details on these and other setups that interest me, visit me for on DailyFX on Demand when I cover the markets.

Ilya Spivak RSS Twitter

Currency Strategist
Ilya Spivak

September 18, 2014 My Picks: Long USD vs. EUR, CHF, AUD
Expertise: Global macro
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 week - 6 months

I remain long the US Dollar against the Aussie, the Euro and the Swiss Franc as the ECB TLTRO launch and the Scotland Independence Referendum loom ahead.

I sold AUDUSD at 0.9186 and have since taken profit on half of the exposure, with the rest open to capture further downside momentum and a stop-loss adjusted to breakeven (0.9186).

On EURUSD, I sold the pair at 1.3644 in line with my long-term fundamental outlook and likewise took profit on half of the trade. The rest is active with a stop-loss at 1.3583, my initial objective.

Finally, I entered long USDCHF at 0.9068. Here too, profits on half of the exposure have been booked, leaving the rest in play with a stop-loss at the first target of 0.9114.

To receive the latest trade updates, sign up for Ilya's email list.

David de Ferranti RSS Twitter

Currency Analyst
David de Ferranti

July 18, 2014 My Picks: Long AUD/NZD, Short EUR/JPY
Expertise: Macro Themes, Asia-Pacific Currencies, Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: Swing Trading: Days

An upbeat BOJ and fading expectations for further stimulus, coupled with the potential for investor sentiment to sour, could see the Yen strengthen. Meanwhile, the ECB has taken another step towards the extreme dovish end of the monetary policy spectrum.

Pitting their respective currencies against one another may present an opportunity for EUR/JPY shorts, with chart conditions appearing ripe. With a descending trend channel intact, the push below 137.60 paves the way for a descent to the 2014 low at 136.30. Invalidation would occur on a daily close back above the 137.60 mark.

Fading expectations for further rate hikes from the RBNZ, alongside souring dairy prices may leave the Kiwi vulnerable to a correction. Yet the potential for carry demand to support the currency remains a risk to short NZD/USD positions, thus pitting it against its high-yielding sibling the AUD may be a safer alternative.

This puts a multi-decade range-bottom near 1.0500 for AUD/NZD in focus. The pair’s most recent bounce may open the 1.0900 handle, while a turn back below 1.0700 would place the immediate risk to the downside.

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Currency Central Bank Rate
Symbol Roll S Roll B
EUR/USD 0.07 -0.16
USD/JPY 0.0 0.0
GBP/USD -0.17 0.08
USD/CHF -0.41 0.18
EUR/CHF -0.41 0.11
AUD/USD -0.61 0.29
USD/CAD 0.09 -0.19
NZD/USD -1.09 0.5
EUR/GBP 0.11 -0.3
EUR/JPY 0.0 0.0
GBP/JPY 0.0 0.0
CHF/JPY 0.0 0.0
Rates shown are the expected rolls in USD for holding one 10k lot today on a typical FXCM Standard account.