Trade FOREX with FXCM

  • Award-Winning Platform
  • 24/7 Customer Support
  • Trade Directly on Charts
  • Free $50K Practice Account
DailyFX Home / Analyst Picks

Forex Analyst Picks & Strategies for

Next Release is at 08:00 EST
John Kicklighter RSS Twitter

Chief Currency Strategist
John Kicklighter

My Picks: Long: USDCHF, AUDNZD; Short: EURJPY; Pending: EURUSD; Watching: GBPUSD, USDJPY
Expertise: Fundamentals and Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 Day to 2 Weeks

Another wave of tempting technical breaks have flushed through my charts, this time on behalf of the Euro bears. However, the technical push doesn't garner the same kind of conviction from the fundamentals and market conditions. First and foremost, the backdrop for market activity is one of range. It is very difficult to jump start new trends - particularly ones that fight large, mature trends.

That said, the euro does have factors that could weigh it fundamentally - moving outside somewhat outside of the circle of the risk that is anchoring broader capital markets. Those are medium-term drivers though that are not generating a lot of kinetic energy.

I already have my toe in the 'euro short' with my EURJPY position (short at 137.20 and a 150 pip stop). WIth the recent push, EURUSD has tripped a level I have bene watching for some time as continuation of a trend that I have traded successfully twice. My concern with momentum is leading me to place a short entry order - just overnight in case I cannot make the decision while monitoring it - at 1.3500 flat and a stop of 90 pips.

There are other Euro trades that I like, but I don't think it is wise to build up such a heavy position when I'm not convinced of momentum. As such, I will not jump back into my EURAUD short that served me well the past three months.

For existing positions, my long-term USDCHF long trade is benefitting from the Euro's slide as the franc takes much of its guidance from its Eurozone trade partner. AUDNZD - which I am also long for a long-term position - is also up on the day after the firm inflation figure.

Other trades opportunities that I am watching include GBPUSD which is facing an inevitable, short-term breakout. I would prefer to see a bearish move below 1.7000 that is encoruaged by a neutral/dovish developments on the UK newswires (a very important aspect). And, keeping a wary eye on risk, I am also watching USDJPY should it move in on 100 which would certainly trigger on a big risk-off move.

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

Trading Log

Symbol Direction Status Entry Stop Target Date Analyst
EUR/JPY short ACTIVE 137.30 Daily Close Above 137.65 136.40 07/17/14 David F.
AUD/NZD long ACTIVE 1.0780 Daily Close Below 1.0750 1.0890 07/17/14 David F.

Today's Forex Trading Tips & Ideas

SCALPING REPORT
Tuesday, 22 July 2014 18:44 GMT | Daily |
RSS
A detailed report offering levels on pairs with favorable scalping opportunities. Scalping is a short term trading strategy that looks to benefit from intra-day volatility.

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

NZDCAD is now testing critical support at the June/July range lows ahead of major event risk tomorrow. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels.
MORNING SLICES
Thursday, 19 December 2013 11:45 GMT | Daily |
RSS
An early morning update, with news, forex analysis, technicals, and a daily trade.

US Dollar Pushes to New December Highs on Fed QE3 Taper - Now What?

The US Dollar jumped to fresh December high after the Federal Reserve tapered QE3 by $10B/month. However, US yields aren’t taking the tapering as a sign of tightening policy.
TRADING THE NEWS
Tuesday, 22 July 2014 19:20 GMT | Daily |
RSS
A detailed report on today's most-expected news release. DailyFX analysts review the expectations, recent history, and how to trade it.

AUD/USD Vulnerable to Weak 2Q CPI Report; Key Support Zones in Focus

The AUD/USD may come under increased pressure over the next 24-hours of trade should Australia’s 2Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) drag on interest rate expectations.
PAIRS TO RANGE TRADE
Friday, 04 July 2014 12:05 GMT | Daily |
RSS
Every day our analysts give you an actionable range trading opportunity.

Stalking A Reversal in USD/CAD

Reaction around 1.0600 should prove important.

Latest Topics in the DailyFX Forums

EURUSD H1 2013
by lollytripathy
Today at 06:54
GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013
by Jason Barnes
Today at 05:31
Elliott Wave Trading Discussi...
by sWavez
Today at 05:21
GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013
by Jason Barnes
Today at 04:07
Currency Central Bank Rate
aud
2.50%
nzd
3.25%
eur
0.15%
cad
1.00%
gbp
0.50%
usd
0.25%
chf
0.00%
jpy
0.10%
Symbol Roll S Roll B
EUR/USD 0.03 -0.08
USD/JPY -0.05 0.01
GBP/USD -0.15 0.07
USD/CHF -0.08 0.04
EUR/CHF -0.03 0.0
AUD/USD -0.89 0.43
USD/CAD 0.14 -0.31
NZD/USD -1.22 0.56
EUR/GBP 0.09 -0.23
EUR/JPY 0.01 -0.03
GBP/JPY -0.27 0.12
CHF/JPY 0.0 -0.03
Rates shown are the expected rolls in USD for holding one 10k lot today on a typical FXCM Standard account.